Boooo. :tdown: Then don’t post here.
That makes no sense especially coming from an ibuki player. 
all your opponent needs is 1 knockdown on you and certain characters can lose 50% or more of their life based on one wake up and that shouldn’t decide matches?
No because after we lose 50% or more of our life we go into our BEAST mode and just luckily parry everything and punish it like crazy for a come back. You know, fighting a losing fight like that main page article.
you should just have made the article “learn to zone please”
This is true. Much of my strategy with Alex is based on putting the opponent on constant wake up.
Lot of the pot calling the kettle black in this thread.
Last time I beat Exodus in a tournament…I do recall it being completely based on guesses. Yeah.
I have to agree with this. If you think about it, there’s 5 things that someone can do to you while you’re waking up.
- A high/mid (blocked/parried the same way)
- A Low
- An Overhead
- A Throw/Command Throw
- Block/Parry/Nothing (none result in damage, per se)
So there’s a natural 20% chance of any of those to happen. The probability of those happening depends entirely upon how your opponent is playing. It’s your job to make an “educated guess” about what they’re going to do based on what they’ve done/not done so far. And I didn’t even talk about characters that have crossups…so that’s even more mixup.
If your opponent is “guess parrying” on wakeup everytime, it’s your job to make an educated guess that that’s what they’re gonna do, and punish appropriately by throwing/whiffing intentionally to set them up for a hit after they whiff parry. But of course, exodus, you already know this, so I too am kinda confused about this thread .
Also: 
You win hands down. Best post in this thread.
3rd strike is not a guessing game. If you get knocked down, then the guessing game can start for you and it’s really only threatening if the other person has a command grab. Everything else in my opinion and experience can be reacted to on knockdown.
Reaction strike >>>>>>>>>> Guess strike
The problem with this thread is the subject placement. Online third strike is largely a guessing game. I’ve been playing on GGPO lately and I notice people just mash throw on wake-up. That does not work well offline in the manner it does online. It’s stuff like that that make 3rd strike online fun, but not to be taken seriously.
I mean SERIOUSLY, have you guys ever played ShinAkuma on GGPO? That guy is nuts :lol:. He just does whatever he wants and he can get away with it because you can’t react to what he’s doing online. I’m sure he’s a great player in person, but Akuma Online is… that shit is just goofy 
.
And Loborine! I play him offline at NC tournaments and he’s a good player, but I beat him because I can play off my reactions. I played him the other day on GGPO and holy shit that man is a beast online. But you can’t exactly translate offensive/defensive online tactics to offline play. They just don’t work the same way because you are allowed a few frames worth of time to make reactionary decisions.
Thanks dude. I agree.
I can kind of agree with that. Having a command grab isnt the only factor that makes it a guessing game. They can switch up theyre game at anytime. I guess I’m just not good enough yet to react to all of that(which Im not). But as for what you said about playing ShinAkuma and Loborine offline, isnt that considered lag abuse? Why did they beat you? Because you couldn’t parry or cuz the lag just fucked up your reaction? But anyway, I just consider 3rd strike to be reaction/guessing. Which it is of course. Whatever, I’m DONE with this thread. This shit will never end. :looney:
If I play an online player online - its a guessing game.
Play the same person offline and you can simply beat him by playing on your reactions.
Play a good offline player offline - its a guessing game again. I never believed this in the past, but its true.
i beat everyone, online or offline, period!
With Ibuki the move that knocked you down probably took 50% of your life to begin with, I’ve rarely had a match come down to what I did from wake though…except against Tenren.
I mean… you can guess if you want to, but I don’t believe it’s necessary. But to sort of contradict myself, I can also understand where one could believe that everything is a “guess”. Even when you zone in, you make a decision based on what you think the other person isn’t gonna be able to do anything about.
It’s kinda hard to explain my opinion in relation to what a guess is. A good example would be footsies. If I punish a whiffed poked, it wasn’t because I guessed. It’s because the other person made the wrong choice, and I reacted to it. I didn’t guess, I played patiently and I took whatever the other person gave to me and used it against them. In rps you have only 3 choices that all happen the same time, with only one right choice to win. In 3rd strike you have much more than that, and you have time to make the right choice.
The flip side is that in certain situations you benefit from playing risky. One choice beats a large number of choices (dragon on wake-up comes to mind). Or maybe that one command grab in the corner with makoto on wake-up loses to a lot of choices, but you can potentially win the match if you guess right. It’s all about risk-reward and really thinking about what you’re doing and what the other person is doing.There’s also techniques to doing more than one thing that beats numerous amounts of choices like a wakeup dp (option select, SGGK).
I don’t think the comparison of 3s to RPS is accurate, but I understand why people would think it so. In RPS you have three choices which all happen at the same time. In 3s you have throws, command throws, invinciblity frames, startup frames, blocking, parrying, overheads, zoning, zones where you can eliminate options, jump-ins, anti-air, safe supers, confirmable supers and the list goes on but in most all cases, technically none of these happen at the same time.
The reason why players like Wong win big tournaments is because they avoid situations where they have to take risks and they play solely on what they can react to. If more people would block low and react to overheads and throws, the US would be on japanese 3s level.
i don;t guess that much.
Speaking of Tenren, does anyone here know him in person?
Aside from Cruise, Tenren has to be the craziest beast I’ve ever played on 2DF.
so i had a long talk with ramza about 3s yesterday. for now, all i can say is don’t be close minded as to how 3s works, even if it seems that way now. there are ways to force solid gameplay and eliminate or minimize the random factors. i’m going to practice this way of 3s and see where it takes me
are pad players even allowed opinions? lol
people who wake up parry “alot” just cannot create offense for themselves imo. so they have to rely on a lucky parry to punish. there’s a reason why good players dont do it and why you hardly see it in high level japanese play. wake up parry is just too risky, it requires little thought and its like taking the easy way out imo.
on the flipside if your always getting punished by wake up parries then, well you deserve it. mixup your game more
and i uoh super all the people that try it on me at CTF
(and on a side note im the only 3s player that you will see doing uoh super at CTF, and on a pad kthxbye lol)
all this wake up parrying, only solid with one character, jumping alot…its a shame!!!
at least i get my ass kicked with dignity!!! lol
the way i always think about it is that certain scenarios are guessing games. but if you let yourself get in that scenario and you don’t want to play guessing games you didn’t play YOUR game solidly enough.
for example : when your back is to the wall its a guessing game, thats all. you are forced to guess.
some players enjoy guessing here, however by its very nature it is inconsistent.
zoning, whiff punishing, punishing dashes, fucking setups , reversals, red parries and all of that are not based on guessing whatsoever.
i personally do not like to guess, i just don’t like investing time into a janky strategy when you can look at a player like kuroda who very rarely guesses when not forced into it.
the only time someone can force a guessing game is when they are in your face. you can play that game if you want, you can also zone them out.
KOfiend’s podcast he talked about how sometimes he would let himself get knocked down so that he could be close to his opponent again while he was in japan.
i thought that was a perfect example of how third strike is more than one game
also the guessing game is not deciding factor in my opinion.
if someone keeps trying to force a guessing game on you, you can beat them relatively easily if you refuse to play THEIR game.
if you like to guess and so do they, then lol have fun. its gonna be random. but that is not how i like to play and i think that style is inferior in the long run no matter how good a guesser you might end up being.
None of the 60 posts in this thread matter because Khang can’t beat me anyway