I think we need to know if Pimp is civ or not so we can tell if the streak will break again.
Statistically speaking, I must be mafia right?
Its also why we did the double yomi with chiefs fake last gasp
Well, I can tell you guys right now that I am not Mafia. It’s sad that if you don’t believe, but I understand.
Feel free to cast your votes on, I don’t mind at all. I haven’t been really helpful in this game beside telling you guys that I’m a civilian and you can trust me on that. If it’s my time to go, it’s my time to go.
Alrighty. Back to homebase. For starters, I’ll show my list with an updated variant of Aidebit’s suspicion pool
Night 1: Forgedigger. INNOCENT
Night 2: Saitsu. INCONCLUSIVE (night action clash with gumshoe)
Night 3: Hecatom. INNOCENT
Night 4: Blindknagg. INNOCENT
Night 5: Aidebit. GUILTY (gumshoe)
So in total, the people we need to look at now are
Great Cow Lord
Icege
Pimp Willy
Saitsu
Explanation of “The Trap” with my take on how the next phases should follow is inbound in my next post. It will likely take a little bit longer to post. Proofreading and sprite posting etc, etc.
Alright, awesome
Icege is Guilty and a liar
Alright so here goes the explanation of my “Mild inconvenience turned into a useful trap”
This story begins, and ends, with Saitsu.
You might recall me saying that one of my reasons for an investigation is when somebody was being non-hostile towards me for the most part. That was the case with Saitsu. I wanted to make sure the likes of him and Forge werent flying by unnoticed right underneath my nose. So I investigated him and received an INCONCLUSIVE. At the time, I had multiple ways to explain this, none of them solid. One of them was that Maya was not actually dead, and had protected him as a night action. The other is that the other UC investigated him. For a minute I had considered that it was a no-kill, but I later discovered that a no-kill makes the corrupt unable to kill for a night phase. Since a no kill had not shown up in the writeups, that was not possible. I didnt really have any ideas at the time, but decided to not investigate him again in case the other UC tried to double down and get him next phase. I also decided I should aim for more low key targets and employed my “Which are least likely to die this soon” and “Who is posting less often” criteria in the interest of not butting heads with the UC a second time.
In hindsight, it’s easy to see how Aidebit mightve investigated Saitsu based on his interactions with me and the paranoid assumption that he might be Gumshoe. He connected the dots on a hunch and investigated him for pretty much the exact same reason I did. All of a sudden on Night 5, a player gets killed and labeled as a UC.
Then comes Day 6. At this point, I have 3 INNOCENTS when the maximum number of possible corrupt is 2. I know for a fact I am Von Karma by this point, but I was mostly convinced the previous phase. More importantly, I landed a GUILTY last night, which is just some delicious frosting on the cupcakes of justice. Now, based on Chief’s last gasp, I will know immediately whether he is Gumshoe or not. All he has to do is post an investigation list where Night 2 is anything other than “Saitsu: INCONCLUSIVE”. But I paced myself and ran through all the possible scenarios.
-
He posts a list that meets that criteria for Night 2, but is actually Corrupt anyway.
Nearly impossible. If he was a sacrifice, he couldnt know my investigation targets because there needs to be 7 in order to sacrifice and still be in the game. In order to sacrifice at this point they need to have gone with the recruit. He would need to make that guess somehow by the grace of god. Made even less likely by the fact that a fake UC wouldnt bother with an INCONCLUSIVE option. They would make some bullshit INNOCENTS, and label GUILTY whoever they wanted killed. -
They know my investigations, and the inconclusive was a result of Maya after faked death.
Completely impossible. The math doesnt check out on that. If Maya protected Saitsu, that would mean that Dandyman was a sacrifice. By the time Night 5 happened that would be 6 corrupt deaths and the game would have been over already. Not an option. -
They dont know my investigations, but the inconclusive was the result of a No Kill
Completely impossible. No kills show up on the write up, and corrupt has killed somebody every night phase so far. -
Chief is actually Gumshoe
About 50% chance. -
Chief is a sacrifice, and will fuck up the list because they dont receive both targets.
About 50% chance. Killing Chief when he was about to be lynched anyway is a super fishy move. Mafia never kill anybody when the town will do it for them.
I had originally planned to wait until after Chief’s last gasp to reveal myself, but Pimp Willy gave me too good of a setup to pass by. I could catch a fair amount of interest, and put pressure on to Aidebit and Chief. I was in a very funny situation. Chief could be a sacrifice, or Gumshoe. Aidebit could be the final mafia if Chief was a sacrifice, or he could be Gumshoe. I knew that if I applied pressure somewhere I would either hit a Gumshoe or a Corrupt. Both cases are a win-win. Hitting Aidebit as Gumshoe is a win for the reason you have already witnessed. We can boil down possible targets to a bare minimum, and coordinate our investigations until we die. Hitting Aidebit as a Corrupt is win just because we could lynch him and get it over with. Even if Chief flipped Gumshoe, we would still be down to one Corrupt and have Gumshoe’s results list to help out.
No matter what I did, as long as I went that general direction, I would have a Corrupt one way or another.
Once Chief fucked up the list, all I needed was for Aidebit was to confirm his Night 2, because nobody else but me and Gumshoe knew about the INCONCLUSIVE on Saitsu. So thanks for being so suspicious Saitsu. You helped us kill a Corrupt plan before it could even breathe.
THIS GAME GOING FORWARD
At this point, this game is finished by Day 7. I vote that we lynch Icege. Me and Aidebit coordinate our investigations afterwards because an investigation comes before a mafia kill, so we still get two more investigations. There are two scenarios following that night phase.
-
The Outlier
If Gumshoe draws a GUILTY, and I draw an INNOCENT, the only possible corrupt is the third man who was not lynched or investigated. That man will be lynched. -
The Easy Way.
Me or Gumshoe find the corrupt through investigation, and we lynch him the next day phase.
It’s been fun, Corrupt, but this battle is lost. Checkmate.
One thing confuses me: if the mafia started the game with seven players, then they received all of the dUC’s investigations, right? If that’s the case, then Chief would’ve known that Gumshoe got an inconclusive on Night 2, after Maya had already apparently been killed. This means, according to TGG’s logic, that the inconclusive must’ve been made by the 2 UC’s choosing the same target. Why, then, would Chief leave out this exonerating piece of information?
Was Chief just being stupid and forgot to include it, or is the something else?
Nah.
See, they only receive the target’s name IIRC.
The rules only state they they receive the names of the people that were investigated, but not the actual results of the investigations.
So say If I were corrupt, and I seen that Aidebit investigated you, I would know that you were investigated by Gumshoe, but I wouldnt know if he got GUILTY, INNOCENT, INCONCLUSIVE, or BOTCHED.
The corrupt have no way of knowing that piece of information, hence why I trusted Aidebit so easily. The only other person who knows about the INCONCLUSIVE, is Gumshoe.
Im guessing that he was trying to impersonate Franziska(me). Notice how he put 3 innocents and 2 guilties. 3 or more guilties looks more like a Gumshoe than a Von Karma. No matter how hard I strain my gray matter, I cant really justify or try to explain what he was even going for. Impersonating a UC at this stage of the game, while both real UC’s are still alive no less, is the dumbest, most game endingest decision they couldve made. Honestly they wouldve been better off forfeiting outright. But hey I get to look good because they goofed. Fine with me.
Oh, and by the way, the medic can only caused BOTCHED investigations (I’m sure that The Chief is very familiar with this), which are different from INCONCLUSIVE results.
Anyway, I’m okay with getting rid of Icege. Who are you going to investigate, TGG?
Speaking of, since we’re on the same page
Icege is GUILTY
I want this to come full circle. I’m going to investigate Saitsu one last time. It will be the most Ironic thing if him being investigated actually stopped him from being found out, but also caused the corrupt to lose at the same time. I’m already laughing in anticipation.
So yeah. EVERYBODY LYNCH ICEGE. I will investigate Saitsu. @Aidebit you can take your pick of GCL and Pimp Willy.
I’d say saitsu and gcl get investigated, icege lynced, which leaves me as the last unknown and lynched if it comes up clean (it wont)
Icege is GUILTY!
Icege is GUILTY
Something ain’t right here. Aid has still not changed to a Dick Gumshoe AV so how can we trust his claim?
Feel free to investigate me if you want, but it will be a waste of a check up. I’m promising you all that Im a civilian. You have to trust me.
No investigation is a waste now since there’s only 4 people that needs to be checked (3 after we lynch someone today).
Is it that hard to follow gcl?
Hmm.
Maybe we need to reconsider our lynch
Lynch Pimp Willy.
I want to win on this lynch. Gcl is woefully oblivious. Icege is woefully suspicious