Thanks AC :tup:
So why are you people voting RF again? It was funny in the PM’s and post game threads, but now it’s just getting dumb. Unless he is mafia in which case you guys are still dumb and ugly.
I’m confused about what you mean by that. Like, we can only win by killing all the mafia, how could killing a mafia make it harder for us to win?
He’s saying that Mafia have less chance of being hit at 4/20 as opposed to 5/19. Statistically, it isn’t actually a bad option for them to sacrifice a member on the first day.
The problem I have with that logic is
Say we manage to hit a mafia day one. With the numbers used in your post it moves to 4/20, giving us a 20% chance of hitting mafia on a random lynch day 2, which is lower than the 5/19, or ~26% chance on a random lynch if we had hit a civ on day one. However, even assuming if the case that started with a mafia kill doesn’t kill another mafia, the odds even back out in the situation where a civ dies first as soon as they hit a mafia.
eg.
4/20, 4/19, 4/18, 4/17, …
5/19, 5/18, 4/18, 4/17, …
Since all mafia have to die in order to win, I can’t see how it could be worse in the long run to hit a mafia early.
Although this doesn’t count for any roles or powers or anything though. I’m not sure of any that could change this significantly.
*Where are you getting these numbers from? *
There’s a benefit to Mafia sacrificing one of their own early on that you’re overlooking.
I kinda figure it’s a way to get mafia to jump on a lynch train.
got damn am I fucking hungover. Drank way too many teddy brewskis last night. Still trying to install EVERYTHING on my pc. Hard as fuck to read this thread when I gotta reboot every 10 minutes. And I ain’t just talking about my pc. Trying to deal with this thread on an iPhone is a hot mess. My next few days of posting should be interesting, considering I’m working 12 hour shifts both days.
Because it would theoretically increase their survivability. In this large game percentage wise it may not matter whether a mafia or civ gets lynched Day 1, because the percentage increase/decrease is so minimal.
Let’s downsize. Lets say there are only 15 people in the game. 5 of which are mafia. So the ratio is 1:3 (or 5/15). Say a mafia gets lynched Day 1 (they offer up a pawn or the civs get lucky). The ratio is now 2:7 (or 4:14). 1/3 is 33%. 2/7 is 28%. So by hitting a mafia Day 1 you’ve increased their survivability into the endgame by 5% and now they are able to dwindle the civ pool because they have more targets they are capable of going after.
IMO, best case scenario for Mafia in this early game is to fodder off 2-3 members to increase the survivability of the players that have the most chance at sliding through the game with the least amount of suspicion while also getting the Head Detective to waste investigating regular civs.
On further thought, the civs can also just roleclaim (or a mafia member could bluff this as well I think) if the mafia members dwindle too low to narrow down the investigation targets. Hrmm. I don’t think I fully though this idea through, but it was a question that needed to be asked so I could get you guys’s opinion on it and implement it in future mafia games.
Even statistically speaking I’m not sure how you can possibly paint lynching a mafia as bad in any situation. Especially considering we probably can’t count on a civilian night kill, especially with unlimited ammo, in this game since its been discussed since the last game how vigi is turning kinda OP. Also PW helped kaz set up the balance for the game and he is the main anti-Vigilante voice after last game.
Everybody knows how much I dislike day one and the seeming randomness of the accusations.
…But AlphaCommando’s MSPaint thing is one of the funniest things I’ve seen here in a long while :tup:
Do we know how many mafia there are?
Also please guys quality over quantity posts this game, I don’t want to have to agonize and sift over 30+ of fluff that leads me to advocate lynching the wrong man. And in return no long multi quoted posts from me :tup:
*Not that, where are you getting the number 4 if they sacrifice one of their members. *
*We don’t. That’s what is making me question AC’s theoretical numbers. How did he arrive at those numbers, what makes him speculate that many. *
At least for me odd numbers are messy to calculate ( I used to always do math by hand). I like my numbers either neat (even) or relatively small (20 or below) myself. Don’t know about Alpha.
Are you looking at me because i triple posted?
Yeah I can’t recall the number of mafia have been mentioned anywhere. I doubt that more than 1/5 are mafia but that’s just pure speculation on my part now.
That was directed at Skizzz, but I was just using those numbers (5 Mafia, 20 Civs) as an example.
*Is that all, because I’m not completely buying your reasoning. We have more than 25 players. *
Oh, I think I got it, thanks.
What would have been a better ratio to use?
Interesting. It feels nice for someone to note that.
Let me pose you a question; if I was mafia, and I was a player who’s already known to be a wallflower, why wouldn’t I try and keep that cover?