You guys realize that if we don’t lynch Alpha, the Mafia might Last Gasp block him, right? We could always lynch Pimp Willy later, but we need to use the opportunity to get a Mafia name or a Mafia himself.
Lynch: AlphaCommando
…Uh…huh:
Lynching AC also disregards the possibility that <PW> didn’t reach out to him or anyone else in the first place:
I noticed TCJ Agreed with your post. Good to see he’s got an eye on the game. Boy, if people hadn’t learned from the last game, he might have come under fire for missing that vote.
Lynching AC is technically our best option. Not sure who else would be a better choice.
I already placed my a while ago, but I never had a chance to post about it today until now.
@godotsrevenge
@the cojones
Post your reasoning. Not someone else’s. Yours.
I’ll give you time to consult the mafia PM.
HAX, you’ll be happy to know I’m vote-tallying. I think it will be quite informative in coming days.
Instinctive feeling. Heck, if he’s not mafia, then the vigi can shoot me or y’all can lynch me the next day; though, I won’t be of any real help if I’m killed.
Well.
Alpha had a plan.
Whether or not he was bluffing we get something.
If Alpha was Mafia?
We get a Mafia member
If Alpha was Civilian?
We get told who <Pimp Willy> is.
If we lynch Pimp Willy right now?
We may not be able to get Alpha (Civ)'s info.
If we lynch Alpha today and Pimp Willy tomorrow?
We get Pimp Willy if he’s Mafia.
If Alpha is civ?
We get his info without the risk of a Last Gasp block. Simple.
If I’m wrong?
Tell me how I’m wrong.
If you’re Mafia?
I’ll give you time to consult the Mafia PM.
So you want to lynch AC because you think he’s mafia.
This is the quandry I’ve been talking about.
Based on the facts we know (<PW> talked to a civ, AC cannot speak, no one else has claimed being spoken to), we have the following possible scenarios:
- <PW> talked to AC. This makes AC a civ. We cannot prove or disprove this due to AC being unable to speak. Lynching today will get us the needed info.
- <PW> talked to someone else that is a civ. This leaves AC’s alignment up in the air.
2a) If he was civ, we won’t know he wasn’t talked to 'til tomorrow, by which time it’s likely that AC will be killed tonight, depending on a few factors (AC vs. <Icege> kill, <Sovi3t> action, etc.).
2b) If he was mafia, he’ll survive the night unless <Sovi3t> kills him. Because <Icege>'s role is known by mafia, this is hard to determine, as mafia killing <Icege> may be more lucrative and lets mafia set up AC for being thought of as mafia, thus not taking him seriously and getting lynched the next day for “appearing to be mafia”.
So many possibilities here… which is why I’m hesitant to vote in either direction.
You would be worried about that.
Did you read my previous analysis on why even an LG block wouldn’t stop us from eventually getting <PW> in a noose? Not to mention the fact that the probability of an LG block existing is super low?
@Synonym
@Pietastic
@Bious
@PimpWilly
How do you feel about a DG lynch?
I’d lynch PW over AC. I’m in no position to take the lead on anything; just asking.
How is this so complicated?
We lynch AC today:
+We get his LG with <Pimp Willy>'s name, unless he revealed himself to one of the inactives or something.
… that’s it.
AC gets merced by the mafia tonight so they can LG block him:
-We lose AC’s confirmation of <Pimp Willy>'s name (assuming he has it).
+Mafia use up their stock
+Mafia confirm that they have five members
+Mafia can’t use the night kill on our medic.
+Mafia can’t use their enforce to role hunt anyone else.
We let AC live until the next day phase:
+We get <Pimp Willy>'s name, which can potentially be corroborated by another civilian if they see Willy’s willy tonight.
+That nets us TWO more confirmed civilians, and means we can deprive the mafia of <Pimp Willy>
It’s late over here (CST + 7 hours so past 1am) so most likely this will be my last post for this phase. I’m going to hold off on AC and see what happens tonight/tomorrow if he survives and vote for DG today. I’d like to trust Chief and Oerba on this one and consequently follow Oz’s list but I’m not entirely convinced that PW is mafia yet.
Nothing personal dark and if you get lynched and turn out to be civ I apologize in advance.
Lynch Dark General
He’s dropped off on posting, which is suspect in a game where the shit’s flying hot. He’s still no higher than fifth on my list, though, personally.
He’s been offline for nearly 12 hours, to be fair. I’d be down to lynch him; just being fair. I’d lynch PW over AC, too, as I said.
I don’t remember that.
But I remember this.
Lynch: Pimp Willy
I always hate lynching people that are active and enjoy this game like PW, and RF day 1.
My desire to lynch PW was influenced very little by Chief’s LG, but nice try.
Even if I hadn’t been confirmed I had been planning on pushing a lynch on PW today. I just would have to have been more careful about avoiding turnaround.
My fear in letting PW live is that he wont return to the chopping block ala MP in the RE game.
I don’t know your playing style PW, but if it’s deliberately making yourself look guilty that’s not particularly well thought out.
DG can be a suspect for another day. this close to the deadline I’m not rushing to find a new case against him and confusing any last minute voters.
Stay the course on PW. If he’s civilian it’s a loss for us but we can recover from it. If he’s mafia it’ll give us some much needed direction.
Lynch Pimp Willy.