The problem is that Intuition and Knowledge are not mathematically quantifiable…
A Ph.D in Mathematics couldn’t make a formula for mafia… just play the damn game lol…
Well, here we go. My post.
I hold no regrets. I’ll take the blame for the loss of GCL, because I started the bandwagon. He looked suspicious, and everyone was playing on their heels. I took my shot and I missed.
As far as night phase goes, the worst thing that could happen if I get offed/targeted is to target Vynce for the day phase. The problem is if I’m alive by morning without having been targeted by mafia, I’ll expect a lot of fingers pointed my way.
This is why I’m saying, hold off on myself and Vynce for one day phase should I live and see what happens. I am not convinced that Vynce is mafia, and I’m fairly sure he at least has a role. I’m not convinced that GCL didn’t have a role either. And I have a feeling, due to Vynce’s jump to vote me, that Vynce has to either have foreknowledge of who GCL was or has to be mafia. I’ll say 60/40 respectively right now. That doesn’t mean a lot at this phase, obviously.
We have too many inactives, one which undoubtedly would be mafia this time. The numbers of inactives just don’t add up to the odds of them all being civs. We either launch an assault on inactives now, or if this night phase provides us any info, we work from that.
I have a few potential ideas on subjects still, but I don’t want to scare them out of potential night actions, so that my theories can’t be proven. All of them hinge on my living. If I die, read into this post what you will. If I live, I will elaborate on my theories.
Who’s still inactive? eivellordsm2 and manx right?
eivellord, Pataka, Manx
I keeping notes and a spreadsheet, btw, but I’m not in any way going to use solely numbers to define what happens next.
I think this night vote will give us a lot of info.
That’s a lot of inactives for the end of the first day.
I don’t understand, what’s the big deal with inactives if they get kicked out after one more day phase? If they’re mafia or care about the game they’re gonna vote so they can stay in.
Right now, I’d probably agree with you. But with the number of people who didn’t vote this time, we can guarantee at least one of them was mafia. So someone that didn’t vote last time probably needs to be targeted more than I do tomorrow.
@Hecatom is still on my radar as well. Not that I fully trust you either, but I feel like you’re less like mafia now than I did on the onset.
We’ll see though. I’m still half asleep, got less sleep than last night, and dreamed that somehow the votes were switched and I was the first out last night.
At least you can look back at people who have been posting verses who’s been voting and how they’re voting.
I dont believe Pataka is inactive. He has been liking posts at least. Also I am not sure if he voted last round or not as his name is not on the list for any.
Just an oversight maybe, but you may want to know how PatakaReada voted/No Vote.
Sentinel mouth beam incinerate Dormammu re-engineered science!
cow lord put himself on a pedestal more than any group/persons suspecting him and trying to get support to get him out didn’t he. Or very early paranoid “better him-than-me” kinda stuff.
Wrote my post and hit reply on page 9. But good thing I’m not the only one looking for that vote answer.
Look at what the “intuition and knowledge” had got us on Day 1. For your information, I also care about the psychological part of the game. When people are not pressured, they tend to follow in certain action or pattern when they only have limited amount of things to worry about. The order of people who made their first post in the game DOES make a difference when it comes to what role they are assigned to.
Also, what degree I have is quite irrelevant here lol. I may use math and logic to aid my findings, but when it comes down to the wire, it’s all about reading people. My point is, if you can use both logic and mind game for your advantage, why eliminate one?
lol niggas writing paragraphs and shit
Also before Taskmaster racks up two kills we should really ban some words from being used after the 2nd night so we can pick up on mafia.
CTRL F will work like a motherfucker when that time comes.
MP: I don’t think anyone would really want to lynch you if they think that you are a civ. You are nowhere as destructive as some (okay I lied. Just one) that I have played in the past.
What do you think about peoples actions and reactions in past games reveals to us about them in this game if they are drastically different. This of course being if they have played in a couple games so far.
Experience certainly makes a difference. The more experience you have, the harder is it for people to find a pattern from your action.
Think of this way:
- If this is your first ever (or the first few) Mafia game and you’ve got a insert any roles here. “When” would you post? “How” would you post? and “what” would you post?
- Think of the first scenario but change the situation to a more experienced player. What would he do?
and finally…
- If you are mafia where you know your fellow members… how would you post as a whole? Would you post one right after another? or would you blend each one of you into a thick crowd?
This, of course, is the first part of the mafia mind game that people tend to overlook. When you overlook something, you have a higher chance to engage autopilot mode. This is when logic can come and bite you in the ass. :3
I just want to note that I voted in the thread. But I was in the office at work when Beta said only PM’s count, and since my Tapatalk isn’t working, I missed the PM window and was labeled a no vote.
At this stage, I don’t think we have enough information to cast suspicion based on votes: every hypothesis for suspicion you can make from this limit info, you can give counter-argument. For now, I’m going to rely more on what people are saying (or not saying). Although I never played an online mafia game, from my experience playing live version as a civilian, it’s what people say that give the bigger tells (especially early game).
I have a question for @SWBeta.
Does She-Hulk get to see the last gasps or do you just hold them all until she dies. Also does magneto get a last gasp if he is hung. No right.