I didn’t see the same 3rd party soft kite that Alpha and JasonC saw when I went back to inspect Blindknaggs game opener. Unless they’re saying he is pointing out that, as Hax, he is third in terms of night action priorities.
1: Decent reasoning, but what’s the risk reward herefor midgame 3rd party lynch? I can think of a few game states where it’s favorable to the civvy cause to have them as an advantageous lightning rod. Won’t say more than that at this point, but think on it.
2: Fair point.
3: This is where I see things differently. Complicit 3rd party hitching his wagon to the civ cause is a potentially mutually beneficial occurrence. The incentive for the 3rd party is that by aligning with civs he can gain a perk via strength in numbers which he normally won’t see as a last man standing type. We get a shepherd dog in sheeps clothing who is another voice actively trying to find mafia with us. Furthermore, it makes the mafia options worse off insomuch that by killing third party they don’t get any closer to their win condition. Therefore it is actually disadvantageous for them to go after 3rd party because it’s highly suboptimal. *
In terms of voting, is there minimum vote requirements for lynchings to take place or is it majority vote receiver gets lynched? Furthermore, in the case of a hung jury and the votes are tied what happens? *
The only way I can see HAX benefiting from the Civ team is if we lynch 3 Mafia with a guilty on the 4th and we draw the game out long enough for BK to recruit as needed. Or if Mafia are close to winning. HAX has two goals in this game, and both of them are opposing goals to Civs and adjacent to Mafia goals:
Extend the game as long as possible
-HAX wants as much time as possible for recruiting
-Civs want to lynch all Mafia ASAP
-Mafia want to reach parity, which takes a long time with 4 Mafia and 17 players
Have as few players alive as possible
-HAX wants less players alive to make recruitment easier. Anyone can die except him and preferably not people he’s recruited.
-Civ’s ideal state is 11 (counting Vigi). 2 Night phases, 4 Mafia dead.
-Mafia’s ideal state is 8 (counting Vigi). 3 Night phases, 9 Civs dead.
Mafia’s ideal state is closer to HAX’s than Civ’s.
Oz has made exactly 1 post and has been MIA since which is pretty typical Oz play. However the Fishjie divebomb is the thing I’m trying to wrap my head around the most. It’s not that Fishjie posted in the thread, but that he said not to lynch Oz **after ** Oz already had votes on him.
For those of you placing your votes on Oz, what are your thoughts on that fact and how is it factoring into your vote? *
Maybe I’ve misinterpreted somewhere and Syn and Reiraku can provide clarification, but HAX’s only win condition is that he is alive and everyone else has the same alignment as him. If we catch all the mafia, and HAX is alive, then the game continues. All we would have to do is “No lynch” so that he can continue recruiting during the night phase until everyone alive is on his side. I’m assuming we can speed the game up if all the civs agree at that point to just bypass the day phase “No lynch” so the game can end with a civ and third party victory.
Secondly, if there’s fewer players alive and there’s a mix of civs and mafia then HAX win conditions becomes precipitously more difficult. A lategame scenario where there is only a few more civs than mafia means a few important things for the HAX player but I’ll highlight the most essential for him: The mafia has little incentive to help him in that scenario due to their risk/reward. As the game goes on and more data is generated it’ll be easier to deconstruct who is mafia via wagonomics and who is actually trying to solve the game. It’d be more beneficial for him to help us smoke out the mafia instead of taking his longterm chances.