I don’t have the means to make a video to capture the bug I’ve been encountering, but Rolento’s overhead (forward mk) seems to whiff 90% of the time or more on Balrog. I haven’t tested for the full cast yet, but for whatever reason the move just seems to whiff on Balrog.
It has a not so good hitbox, and Balrog’s pushbox is a known problem since Vanilla. These two things combined cause it to whiff more often than not.