I’m struggling a little with what people think the match-up numbers mean, so let me ask a different question:
If you were going to play a fixed-character money match first to ten games for $1000. How many games handicap would you require, or be willing to give against an unknown opponent, and what would you think is fair?
0
minimum post length.
Shari you like to be flippant don’t you.
To try to answer your question Rufus, I believe the answer would be that if you felt the matchup was 7-3 in the opposing character’s favor, then you’d ask for a 3 game head start to equal things out.
Now, they might feel that the matchup is actually in your character’s favor, so you’re back to square one.
But you’re going to get a lot of predictable answers from people saying that “tier list’s don’t matter”, that it’s about “player to player base”, that “every character can win”, etc., etc., etc.
Tier list’s don’t matter.
It’s about player to player base.
Every character can win.
Etc etc etc.
Still 0.
Okay you’ve given your answer twice now, we get it.
given the nature of how random st/hdr can be, there’s no way i would ever consider giving another player free wins in a mm scenario.
i see where you’re going with this, though.
FWIW: A .45 chance to win is still bad enough to justify a handicap of 1 game in a first to 10.
This has reminded me of the answer I gave to a friend who has asked me what a “money match” is*, which was “That’s when you bet money and play against someone’s boxer.” I don’t accept money matches in any game for a few reasons, and one of them is my characters having bad match-ups.
In Japan they have organized some team tournaments with character restrictions, such as “only one from big 4” and “only one from big 5” (which adds Chun) and the point system VF4 has posted about recently.
*He speaks Portuguese, only.
Actually, if you want to get mathy about it, in that situation I believe you’d ask for a five game head start. If you think you can win on average 1 game out of 3 (okay that’s technically a 6.66 - 3.33 matchup, lol), that means that in an “even” match you’d need to win half as many games as your opponent wins, so you’d want to need to win 5 games and your opponent would need to win 10 games, which means a 5-game head start.
Another approach would be to have equal number of games needed to win, but unequal payoffs. So if you think you have 25% chance of winning the whole thing, then you ask for 3:1 odds.
It’s pretty damn hard to try to evaluate your “odds of winning” to any reasonable degree though, so somehow I don’t see either handicap matches or unequal odds matches getting very popular, and the “straight” money match will probably remain the most popular one by a landslide, just because it’s simpler. Even Daigo always does straight matches, and I don’t think most people calling him out to MMs actually think they have >50% chance of winning. Still, I find these handicap / unequal payoff matches interesting in theory.
I can’t wrap my head around it. But then I’ve always had a massive blind spot for probability theory.