I feel this match is in Makoto’s favor because she gets more out of a correct guess (read) on offense, but you absolutely have to be ready on defense if Abel manages to get momentum. However, you’ll see there is a lot of risk behind every his every option once you have a better idea of Abel’s offense.
Let’s start with defense. There is a guessing (mind) game on defense, but the risk/reward is in your favor until Abel stocks a full U1. EX Oroshi is borderline useless on resets because it loses to throws and meaty s.FP (2nd hit will connect). A good Abel player will block high if c.LP or c.LK whiffs and you’re at perfect range to block a step kick into pressure. Step kick is +1 on block if Abel dashes and it is the best thing he has in this match. Step kick stuffs every normal, goes over c.LK, and whiff punishes almost everything (especially Tsurugis and s.MP). Step kick can be whiff punished but good Abel players won’t let that opportunity happen very often. It loses to focus (just let go and back dash), jumps, and well timed HK Tsurugis. You may not get a punish off a jump, but you get pressure on offensive pressure on your terms. After a step kick xx dash, Abel will generally c.LP > s.FP/tick throw, Tornado, EX Tornado, or throw. If Abel expects an EX Karakusa, then back dash and neutral jump enter the mix. Looking at this offense, your lowest risk escape option is back dash because it beats all of these choices on paper. So why not back dash every time? First, it doesn’t work in the corner very well unless you happen to dodge a Tornado. Secondly, Good Abel players will c.LP OS c.HK > s.FP. The sweep tags back dash and Abel dashes toward to set up the same pressure. If you’re playing a shitty Abel then back dash and up back 4 lyfe. Otherwise, you’ll need to occasionally block and let your opponent know you aren’t afraid to EX Karakusa. Once this standard is established, now Makoto now has to deal with throws. Occasionally trying a regular tech isn’t such a bad idea since it’ll also stuff regular Tornado, but getting combo’d into full U1 off c.LP is very painful. If you are almost certain that a throw is coming, then bust out the YOLO IAT Tsurugi for a beefy punish. Off throws, air resets, and Falling Sky you can expect the second tier of Abel mix-ups: the ambiguous roll. It is possible to react mid screen to which side Abel ends up on (but it ain’t easy). Generally, Abel uses different strength rolls to determine which side he’ll be on. Unlike an ambiguous cross up, the opponent knows which side Abel will turn up which means you’re at a slight disadvantage. All of Abel’s offensive options are the same as after a blocked step kick except now he can meaty s.FP which loses to back dash/EX Karakusa and he can try for a c.FP into U1 which is punishable on block and loses to the same options. It is difficult to react to a cross over roll and get an EX Karakusa to come out fast enough, but it’s possible. I feel blocking is a much better option against roll resets than step kick pressure but figure out what’s comfortable to you. A corner ambiguous roll is the worst position for Makoto because it is practically a guess to determine which side Abel will end up. Against good Abels, I recommend U2 to escape this situation. Use c.MK or EX Oroshi to beat random and chip Wheel Kicks. Change of Direction xx FADC toward is pretty much identical to step kick. If you block CoD, mix up your answer between throw and MK IAT.
Offense-- safe jumps:
Back throw > delayed dash > neutral j.FP // MK Tsurugi catches backdash.
EX Oroshi > toward dash > whiff c.LP > neutral j.FP // MK Tsurugi catches backdash.
U1 > toward jump late Tsurugi > neutral j.FP.
U1 > dash > t.MK > neutral j.FP.
EX Tornado beats a j.FP/FK safe jump but loses to late Tsurugi. Land and throw if expecting a roll. Land and IAT if you feel a throw tech or EX Tornado incoming. Hitting Abel with the business Tsurugi will make him think twice about sticking out an EX Tornado. s.MP x4 is possible on standing and crouching Abel after a deep jump in, but s.MP x3 is probably more practical. You can also c.LP > s.LP > s.MP > s.MP if you love 1-frame links. Abel players love to EX Tornado after blocking a j.FP from above the waist, so answer with an IAT Tsurugi after you land. Abel can punish IAT with focus so don’t be too predictable. Use EX Hayate or a manly dash toward on reaction to focus fishes. Sweep xx roll is throw punishable. Falling Sky is such an awful AA option that it’ll trade with j.FP. Get mileage out of plinked Tsurugis on your jumps as it stuffs c.FP and s.MP AAs. Punish U1 with dash > s.MP x4 if you got crispy links.
Just keep in mind that Abel can only realistically punish smart back dashes with a sweep OS and takes an enormous risk throwing out EX Tornados. If Abel waits to do anything on your wake up to punish your back dash (like just walk toward and step kick) then you need to mix up your defense because there is no reason for an opponent to feel comfortable enough to try that stuff next to Makoto. Also, focus + throw tech is a nice option but I think it’s gone in Ultra so don’t get used to it.
Happy hunting.