I think it’s 5.5 - 4.5, slightly Ibuki favored, or possibly 5-5. I think I made an Ibuki vs Sakura analysis some time ago, but I dunno where it went.
In terms of midrange footsies, Sakura should be doing cr.MK and st.HK and nothing else. cr.MK is Sakura’s all around good poke, and Ibuki has no perfect answer for this. f+LK works but Ibuki’s spacing must be on point, and most especially, the stupid hitbox on Sakura or EX tsumuji or whatever won’t allow it to combo 100% when you use f+LK xx EX tsumuji to counter poke cr.MK. Stupid Capcom. Ibuki can choose to fight back with cr.MP or st.MK, but both aren’t without problems. cr.MP is much slower (though it does have plenty more active frames) and st.MK has a lesser hitbox. If you use st.MK your spacing has to be on point, and you’ll most likely be using it as a whiff punish. Ibuki’s cr.HK is also a good whiff punisher.
Sakura’s st.HK is also an excellent poke, but is more riskier as it’s slower. Small fact: Ibuki’s slide can go under st.HK and stuff it every time. Kind of risky though.
I’d say Ibuki’s primary tool in this matchup is going to be FA. It has about the same range as Sakura’s st.HK. What’s notable about it is that it moves Ibuki’s lower hitbox forward, like her leg or something as she’s charging up. This means that even though Ibuki is right outside Sakura’s cr.MK range, she can purposely FA and start a mindgame. Even moreso if Ibuki knows how to kara FA. Like Izuna said in the Ibuki vs Sakura matchup (first page of Ibuki matchup thread), FA xx backdash is an excellent way to bait cr.MK with buffered Shouo, since Ibuki’s backdash is so far. Once Sakura is relunctant to push buttons, this paves the way for dash gimmicks and other tricks, like walk up overhead.
Fun fact: Ibuki’s U2 can punish Sakura’s dp xx FADC backdash on block. And Ibuki’s U1 can punish Sakura’s dp xx FADC forward dash on block. Dash correctly or delay that dash cancel to mess with Ibuki’s reactions.
Sakura has the faster walkspeed too, so that’s also something to consider.
In terms of okizeme, Ibuki’s is easier, imo. Maybe it’s because I main Ibuki instead of Sakura, but I feel like I’m able to keep my opponent in the vortex as Ibuki better than I can continuously knock my opponent down as Sakura.
In order for Izuna to approve:
If both players’ execution sucks, Ibuki has higher dmg output. If Sakura can tatsu loop consistently, Sakura has higher dmg output. If Ibuki can tsumuji loop consistently, dmg output is about even, depending on how much meter Sakura wants to burn on FADC combos.
Fun fact: st.HP xx lk.Tatsu , cr.HP xx EX tatsu , U1 does the exact same damage as without the tatsu loop (ie: st.HP xx EX tatsu , U1). The tatsu loop is still useful though, cuz you get the extra stun + meter, but if you know it’ll end the round then it probably won’t matter.
Coincidentally, both Ibuki and Sakura have the same go-to frame trap: cl.st.MP, which they can both hitconfirm into knockdown, counterhit or not.
Ibuki has a very useful overhead, whereas Sakura’s isn’t so much. Sakura’s overhead is fast, and does good damage, but -3 on block is a risk, and especially if Ibuki has U1 stocked and has good reactions and/or is looking for it.
Imo, it’s easier for Ibuki to backdash out of pressure than it is for Sakura to backdash out of pressure. Thanks to Ibuki’s far, airborne backdash, Sakura cannot consistently option select this normally. She has to use option select Shouo, which requires some decent execution/timing. Or otherwise be on point with Sakura’s blockstrings and other traps, also making use of her good walkspeed. Sakura’s backdash on the other hand, is easy to option select (eg: cr.LP , cr.LP + cr.HK) and doesn’t go very far, meaning you’ll most likely eat the frame trap into reset and then back into pressure.
Small facts: when Ibuki goes for launcher resets, specifically TC6 xx SJC hk.cd and cl.st.HK xx SJC cd , cr.HP xx SJC mk.cd
(I’m fairly sure) she can choose which side to end up on depending on if she delayed the last SJC cd or not.
Small fact: Sakura can do the reset/dash under glitch with EX tatsu , j.HK , forward dash. What happens is that Sakura’s opponent loses the ability to push buttons. Ibukis: be wary of mashing EX dp! There’s more to it than that, but more info can be found here: Patch these for SSF4 AE!
Speaking of reversals, don’t even bother using them unless you have meter to FADC. Taking the throw/frametrap is considerably better.
For example, Ibuki’s EX dp does about 160dmg. For comparison, if it’s blocked, Sakura can dash up (under any possible kunai, thanks to the lowered hitbox when she dashes) and then punish with whatever, preferably some heavy tatsu combo. I played around with random punish combos, and your best bet is the trusty st.HP xx lk.Tatsu , cr.HP xx whatever for like 300+ (more than twice the damage of Ibuki’s dp). If you have meter, go for the EX tatsu because you’ll get all the hits. Also noteworthy is clstMK clstMK crHP stLK tatsu loop for good damage without meter. I couldn’t figure out a way to get a meaty tatsu, so sorry no cr.MK xx Shouo ender. If you have super, you can go st.HP xx HP Shouo xx Super for like 480dmg; 499dmg if you go for tatsu loop first. Or if you got the execution, go for tatsu loop FADC combos. Really hard but with one FADC you can almost already get super damage. If you tack on U1 you can get like 500+ dmg. Anyways, if you play Sakura you already know how to punish hard.
Sakura’s EX dp is 180dmg. Basic tsumuji loop is like 340dmg. If Sakura is in the corner, tsumuji loop into EX tsumuji juggle is like 410dmg. Tsumuji loop into U2 is like 460dmg. cr.HP xx MP kunai (midscreen or corner) into tsumuji loop is like 372dmg (a bit more work than Sakura but meterless and beast metergain and stun). Sakura’s tatsu loop only do like 500-550 stun. Ibuki’s cr.HP into tsumuji loop does like 600stun. cr.HP xx SJC U2 is 476dmg.
You got the idea. You can get punished for 2-3 times the damage of your reversal. It’s not a good idea to use it at all unless you are 100% sure it will hit.
I think Sakura’s combos are harder to do. Maybe it’s just because I main Ibuki and thus have more practice with her, but dropping a tatsu loop with Sakura usually means death if you cancel into Shouo. And it still means death if you cancel into EX tatsu which often whiffs on crouching Ibuki. Too bad AE 2012 will buff that for you. Meanwhile a dropped combo with Ibuki like tsumuji loop just means loss of momentum, not a free combo.
Also, as Sakura, don’t bother ever using her fireball. It’s worthless, and it’ll only get you ultraed, EX neckbreakered, hit with slide into combo, etc.
Did I miss anything?
P.S. we should probably continue this discussion in the matchup thread, not the discussion thread.