I start to see improvement on the b.mp confirm even tho I still suck at it, maybe got 10% more success. The click for me was to not consider b.mp - st.hp as one target combo but really b.mp alone then nothing or st.hp xx ex.fireball or st.hp xx tatsu.
If I think of it as a target combo I want to do it too fast for some reason, but you actually have quite a bit of time between b.mp and st.hp (it’s good to do it slow anyways because it causes a frame trap).
I grind training mode every day for like one hour doing both his target combos confirm, it can get frustrating.