hey paper, just played a couple sets vs you and i’d like to chime in
ryu’s best option is to rush it down vs fuerte. forget your normal zoning with fireballs and predictive c.mks, fuerte will dance around all that bullshit all day and build free ultra off your fireballs. simply walk forward until fuerte has gone into the corner, focusing any splash/sweep attempts, jumping back to ward off the run throw, and so on. counter all his options until he’s in the corner, then begin your normal corner offense, keeping in mind that fuerte’s ultra is an excellent reversal.
all of fuerte’s damage comes off oki, punishing your slow specials on reaction, and keeping you out of your comfort zone with constant 50/50’s. don’t lose your shit. remember, you’re ryu, you have plenty of health to spare, and you only need to hit fuerte like 5 times before he croaks. react to fuerte late, he has plenty of ways to bait and punish you for 40 percent life or more. don’t predict, react. and if you’re blocking, you’re doing it wrong. rush fuerte down!
when you get knocked down, remember that fuerte has 2 basic options: he can try to throw you, or he can try to hit you. watch fuerte closely right before he gets up. if he’s running backwards, a tortilla is most likely to follow, hold up-back, then either jump back again to get away from the immediately following tortilla attempt, or start a focus to beat the splash.
if he runs toward you, he’s probably trying to hit you, as the fajita buster is not very safe, and comes out slowly. as such, either block correctly (high normal, high crossup, low), or start a focus and quickly dash cancel it towards fuerte, punishing with c.hp/c.lp xx whatever. if you’ve timed the focus correctly, it should come out facing the correct side and you’ll be able to hit fuerte with the focus every time. not necessarily with lvl 2, but at least a lvl 1 hit, then dash back and reset your rushdown spacing.
on knockdown, start oki with throws (beat ex run kara cancel ex run backwards), meaty low short into tick (the low short will get soaked up by ex run cancel ex run, but you’ll recover fast enough to jump back c.mk to beat the tortilla, focus to avoid the splash, etc), and, when you’ve got fuerte scared into standing still and teching after a knockdown, ex tatsu.
safe jump is also an excellent tool vs fuerte, as it beats the reversal ultra (neutral jump after jumping attack recovery to avoid it) as well as ex guac (avoids it, punish with walk forward, cmk xx tatsu). buffer a hk tatsu into your safe jump to beat the ex runs and back dashes.
to sum up – keep moving forward, don’t use slow specials/normals (and every normal is slow compared to fuerte’s options), and don’t lose your shit. watch fuerte closely, you can see the animation for tortilla come out, and it’s very different to that of splash/sweep. and when you get a knockdown, keep the momentum up!