I should’ve actually given advice, however… I heard the OP is kind of a joker, so… that’s that.
Obviously he can get baited, but from what I’ve known and seen a lot of Vega players will dive every wakeup until stopped. (the old if it works, why change it ST mindset) Forcing them to try to bait your shoryu actually makes a match of it, so stuffing a dive asap is pretty important.
I know Ryu’s jhk (angled or neutral) is good at stopping his off the wall stuff, jmp works as well. As for the ground game, I can’t think of much that Vega can’t stuff atleast from the normal fireballing/usual Ryu range. Since he can hop your FBs so easily, and clean counter/trade when he doesn’t hop… well, I’d fight him up close.
I’m not a serious shoto player, I play Bison and OG Sagat, but I do know how to beat them. Hopping over the fireballs (straight up) and countering them clean when you predict adds up. That’s how Vega is going to win the match ultimately, not necessarily the dive. I have the hardest time against a shoto when he’s coming at me, taking away the range of my (Bison) standing MK/HK and uppercutting my tricks. I have the easiest time when I can kick him every time he tries to FB me from midscreen, use my tricks safely, and dictate the match.
Take the initiative and beat that ass. Vega doesn’t have that big of combos, and staying at a fireballing range only plays into his gameplan.