Well I got my first dizzy today off of mostly grabs while unoiled, so I feel qualified to answer this question.
My game plan from the start is to play very reactively. If I wait and see a fireball, I’ll cower, or jump it. If they can’t throw fireballs/DP, I’ll neutral jump (for a defensive air throw), or jump at them to either air throw, or attack.
I think Hakan thrives most when he shows he isn’t scared to jump at people. Againt all other grapplers, jumping away is like a get out of jail free card. And since Hakan really lacks combos, I’m under the impression that people anticipate the Rocket that much more.
With that in mind, I try to play how I anticipate the other player to, and how I’ve tried to condition them. If I’ve knocked them down twice, be it a grab or a sweep, maybe next time I’ll do oil dive, or possibly air throw. Silde is good too on wake-up, if you act like you’re going to give them space while you oil up by backdashing. It’s risky, but it’s successful so far.
Getting oiled up is so necessary for good tick/throw setups. Earlier today I had a Juri player cornered, and I think I did a c.HP, c.LK, c.HP “block string”, followed by HP Rocket. Rocket has so much reach when oiled, you can attempt it after any normal with good recovery/spacing on hit or block. I think since his grab range is so good when oiled explains why he can chain c.LK only when oiled. I don’t think Hakan has any true block strings aside from that.
I think a person who is in a mindset that since they’re unoiled, they have to play defensively, is doomed right then and there. Nobody is going to let you oil up, and Hakan is not worthless without oil. As necessary as oil is for good tick/throw, a knockdown is necessary for oil. Therefore, a person must figure out how to play a good Hakan unoiled before they get to douse in oil and bask in the sun.
c.HP has been really good for pressure/evading jump ins/covering ground, and when I go for Rocket, it’s mostly HP to dish out as much damage as possible in one move.