The only way Balrog wins this match up is if he gets in and stays in, or if the Gouken is just too dumb and throws fireballs and allows Rog to tap through.
Against a Gouken worth his salt, EX Rush punch is ONLY Good mid screen and closer, from 3/4 - full screen you will almost always be tatsu’d or back thrown for trying it. Not unless you catch him throwing fireballs.
He parried, parried, parried, and parried. Focus attack is the best option in this scenario if you want to limit his options, he’s not Akuma, he can’t armor break you for it. If it’s not during you wake, I’d say limit his options and force him to use Gouken Flip Throw b/c the recovery is shitty and he can’t safe jump you afterwards. It seemed he was more parry happy than anything.
No rushing through fireballs if Gouken has any kind of meter. You’ll etiher eat a EX Tatsu or Shin Sho. Instead keep walking and Focus absorbing through until you can get to Safe TAP range or safe lp rush range (mid screen/close).
Any time Gouken does Gouken Flip not on your wake up, just simply jump back to avoid the set up.
And GRAB HIM!!! If you knock him down, press right up against him and make him afraid that you’ll grab him. This sets up all of the baits and counter hits you’ll need to beat him. This is really all the advice you need to win the match vs. Gouken. He’s very suspect to showing his hand b/c he doesn’t have a good wake up move.
The only thing grab loses to is Ultra, EX Tatsu, and Jump Out (EX Flip too, but you can press up against him and he’ll always land on the other side so you can punish). Most Goukens don’t want to EX Tatsu on wake up without 3 BARS b/c it gives up a max punish to everyone on the game. Jump out’s loses meaties and counter hit, and crouch tech loses to counter hit. Counter beats meaties and Counter hit but it doesn’t beat grab, or meaty Overhead Smash.
Bottom line be willing to press up against him, Gouken has to take a huge risk to wake up with the intent to do damage or avoid being grabbed. Jumping out with Gouken on wake seems to be a great option vs. opponents who are constantly grabbing, until they call his bluff and meaty attack him before he can leave the ground > hit confirm combo. He can back dash on wake but you can OS him for it.
And Goukens HATE to be locked down with chain jab strings, b/c it makes him more suspect to tick grabs, and he can’t counter through chain jabs. Some people will be mashing the shit out of counter during chain jabs, so you can just stop the jabs and if Gouken is mashing reversal then you watch him whiff and punish.
There’s still alot the Gouken didn’t do though, and Balrog is quite easy to jump in on. 