Yeah, you broke down my examples.
With things like:
“Imagine you had 100 randomly shuffled votes. Then you take the first 50, and see: 90% of people voted A.
BUT this doesn’t mean that A has won already, because black people vote differently than hispanics.”
You didn’t hurt my feelings. I tried to teach you, and you don’t get one bit and are sprouting random bullcrap. Too bad.
Well maybe you just like to curse at people for no reason then.
Saying that my assumptions are baseless means absolutely nothing to me unless you have some facts.
You’re essentially saying that I don’t know as much as you do which is literally the case I have been making all along.
There is no way to prove statistically speaking at this point who has already won, or most likely to win with 40% of the vote left undecided.
The statement that I have been trying to make all along is that when Rav said that he was sure he knew who was going to win, it’s actually misleading. Rav is cannot be statistically sure who’s going to win at all just by looking at only 60% of the vote.
Likely / Unlikely =/= certainty.
I should also mention that I correctly predicted that Annie and Eliza would make it top 4 almost 3 weeks ago.
"Saying that my assumptions are baseless means absolutely nothing to me unless you have some facts."
Do you REALLY not understand why the country data is completely meaningless? That was so random I thought you were trolling.
Honestly, I voted for Hive. Her resemblance to Q-Bee sold me the minute I saw her. There were characters I prefer over her (i. e, Black Dahlia) but I figured those ones would get a lot of votes anyway, so I just opted towards Hive.
So, the gist of the argument is that Vulpes basically said that unless there’s stark difference in preference between the first 60% of the votes and the remaining voters, there’s enough data to support Ravid’s statement of the most likely winner. While thebigbadwolfe thinks geographic/cultural/other bias factors could sway the final numbers. No idea how he thinks that could factor in, since the only thing that we can really differentiate between the early and later voters is the voting time that’s most convenient for them.
Anyway, if we take the 60% as a survey sample with no bias, I would go with Vulpes’ remark that Ravid’s statement is justified. It’s big enough to be a reliable projection of the total voting outcome and it’s not as if any country/group is more likely to vote early/later than any others.
I don’t even know why some of ya’ll entertained thebigbadwolfie’s nonsense.
I immediately laughed once I saw he was attempting to prove the man that’s had all the voting data and analysis since the beginning was incapable of projecting the winner with no data or analysis of his own.