Thanks for the vote of confidence Higgs. I guess my expectations are set a little high. Its just that I’ve hit 4900 three times so far and each time I get there, my progress stops. I usually end up falling down about 800-1000 points, once I even fell into the 31XX’s. But yea, if I lose I keep hammering away until I start winning again, even if it means playing the same guy over and over.
Past couple days have been like that where I play one guy who beats me, but I keep on playing him because I’m convinced that I’m better and that I only lost due to bad inputs. But those matches either end in stale tugs-of-war for BP/PP or force me to drop significantly. I guess I should just be chill with it…
Oh and a bloody T-Hawk player called me a scrub for playing footsies instead of rushing down. Goddamn Xbox Live.
[edit] Oh and about it being 3am, lol yes I’m somewhat nocturnal :razz: The quiet of the night helps me think more clearly too (unless im exhausted lol).
Slowly edging myself upwards. First ranked match I played was against an A rank Abel, and my execution was unforgivable. Couldn’t hit a single link from CW (I did HK CW > cl.HK one time, and cl.MK another lol). Dropping BnBs. Getting the wrong move constantly (I think I did 3 unwanted tenshins) Twice I got a crumple and fudged the input for ultra. TWICE. The first time getting EX Rekka x 1 lol, then the second getting an immediate j.HP.
When he Breathless’d the first time I did cr.LK, st.LP and then hit him out with cr.MP luckily while he held it, because i was trying to mash ultra 1 during the his ultra freeze. The second time he did ultra was as I just started a neutral jump and when I landed EX Rekka came out again instead of ultra and then I died (fuck, looking at the replay now, I got the ultra input perfect and EX rekka still came out :@). lol.
Just curious, what are everyone’s worst matchups according to the ranked match stats?
Mine are El Fuerte, Ibuki, Guy and Boxer, in that order with El Fuerte being the worst (25% win rate lol!). It feels pretty accurate in terms of which matchups I struggle with. On the other hand it seems quite different from the matchups people in this forum typically seem to complain about (with the exception of boxer). I’m sure a lot of it is inexperience with certain characters… but is this just me? I have a 50% win rate vs Guile for example.
I’m sitting at 3,643PP and 10,166BP after 1,046 ranked matches with Fei, and a win rate of 64.63% (Not trying to start an ePeen contest here though lol, I’m sure there are bigger and girthier ePeens than mine in the Fei forums) and I somehow have a ranked win streak of 35 :looney:
My worst characters to play against would be:
28.57% - C. Viper
37.50% - Balrog
38.10% - Dhalsim
41.67% - DeeJay
45.16% - Blanka
46.67% - T. Hawk
46.67% - Chun-Li
Never lost to a Hakan though ^.^
For the other ones you listed though:
87.50% - El Fuerte
53.33% - Ibuki
71.43% - Guy
50.00% - Guile + Honda
A lot of that is matchup experience though like you mentioned. I don’t know how my Guy rate is so high, because I lost quite a few games to some good Guys this month, I must have played him more than I thought. The Dhalsim win rate isn’t really a good representation though, I’ve not faced one in ranked for about 2 months. Plus these figures also represent when I first started so I don’t know how much I can take from them; clearly not as much as I’d like though
Cool stuff, I haven’t checked my match-up stats but I will later. Do these stats take into account Endless battles as well though? I have millions of losses with my Ken and Sakura trying to bring them up.
Nahh it’s only ranked that it does that for. lol, just got on for a short while and straight away played on that ‘TheBeard’ stream that’s posted in the main SSFIV forum, and my hands were too cold to do anything! Got 2 wins I think, but couldn’t do anything to a Gen and his wall dives. One time I just swept instead of doing a FK on wakeup
I don’t think they do, I remember looking at my Sagat stats and they were way short as I do the same with him in endless. Could be the wrong section though.
It’s not really that usefull to me as my low percentages often come against characters that are not main stream in ranked - Gen for example.
Hm, well my win rate sucks lol (close to 53%). But that doesn’t say too much I suppose. It doesn’t seem like I have any horrible fights, but the ones I have under a 45% win rate are:
Actually, I started this, but I should just point out one thing about these matchup stats: You really need a lot of matches played for them to mean anything. Let’s say you’ve played N matches, and have fought all characters equally, for argument’s sake.
So you have N/35 matches against each character. Take a character who you go even with. Then you’d expect to have won N/70 fights. One standard deviation of this is Square Root of N/70. This then means that there’s about a 30% chance that your matchup percentage stat will be off by Square Root(35/2N) times 100%.
So what this means is, if you have only 1000 ranked matches, your stats are only accurate to about plus or minus 13%.
ie, if you have a 50% winrate against some character, then it might look like anywhere from a 37% winrate to a 63% winrate. (typically)
I’ve got 2300 ranked matches, which means that my stats are accurate to within about 9%.
Of course, the matchups that you face rarely will have much larger errors!
Still, I think you can get some important info from these stats, and use them to suggest matchups you should work on.
PS: I had a nice streak yesterday and made it to 4200PP :). I hope it’s not about to plummet back down…
PPS: Taking all of our matchup stats together so far, there isn’t really any indication of Fei Long getting hit hard by charge characters…
no surprise that you below 50% win rates are against Fei’s harder matchups. Guile can be a pain in Fei’s ass and Honda is just a tank. Ibuki and Viper as well give me mixup fits. I got the ok from Wolfkrone to play against him as well as get tips on the matchup. I will let you know how bad I get raped by him. What’s your win rate against Bison? To me he is also one of my hardest matchups
Against Bison I’m 50.17%. He’s actually right at the cut off for my fights above and below 50%; I have 10 below 50% which include the ones I’ve mentioned above.
Wish I could train with Wolfkrone. Everytime I try to challenge him in ranked he kicks me out… and we have green bars in the match search page too. :-/ Guess he’s got bigger fish to fry.
Very nice landmark Brian. Wish you weren’t in Tokyo so we could have some sets.
As far as the data goes, I don’t think it can be used as conclusive tier evidence, but more of a personal progress report. Though it may not show the Feis here as having problems against the general population of charge characters, that doesn’t take into account the skill levels of the players who main these characters and whether or not they are using them effectively. For instance, Ryus normally don’t give me trouble, but put me up against Air and/or a yellow-bar connection and it’s all down hill from there.
This is something that is worth doing. I have been concentrating on Sagat of late and throwing away my PP is like picking a thorn out of my foot.
Once you can get your mind over the fact that it will make you a better player in the long run it’s quite relieving. Plus I find people are WAY more willing to play me again and again in ranked if they think I’m easy meat.
More matches = more progress. It’s hard to get matches consistantly in Australia without having to look at the clock. I Bet you USA folk just jump online and it’s swarming.
Something I’ve often though about - Is 2000PP in one country the same value in another…? Ie 2000 in Japan may be like 3000 in USA etc etc. Just a theory.
