Maybe Sagat would be still in the top, but what the others?
Tier List & SSF4:
SF4 and SSF4 are still two completely different games, just the same mechanic.
The core TierList would only alter (for already existing characters in SF4) based on new Ultras and the SSF4 changes to their moves/priority etc etc
These changes obviously don’t apply to Vanilla, so there is no reason for it to change purely because there is a different incarnation of SF4 out there with changes. Sagat is still No.1 in Vanilla, for example, that can’t change unless Capcom actually edited SF4 itself which, I’m sure, is never ever going to happen now.
Tier List W/O SSF4:
In relation to your actual question, would it change WITHOUT SSF4, it would based on Tourny/HighLevel Match results if people still played SF4 competatively which I don’t think happens given we have Super, now. So I guess the answer is still No. Besides, people have had plenty of time over 1-2 years (however long Vanilla has been out) to get a relatively solid idea of the tier list. It’s probably not concrete, but close to it, and has little reason to change at all.