Alright, back with a bit of fresh knowledge for you guys, not going to go back and correct and update every litte thing but I hit the lab for a bit and found a few things out.
I started off by putting the computer on Hardest difficulty against another hardest CPU playing Deejay, trying to figure out what the computer thought would be the best way to attack Balrog. The computer decided to focus on two things in particular The sweep, and the Sobat Kick. Granted, the computer was stupid and focus attacked numerous times, but by the third match, the computer did nothing more but spam Sobat kicks over and over again until it got stuffed. It was throwing mk and lk sobat kicks out constantly, and it stuff alot of what computer rog was trying to do. Deejay actually took the five match set, 3-5 with Balrog winning the first, Deejay the second, Rog the third, and Deejay the final two.
I didn’t see anything nominal, but I noticed a few little quirks about the Sobat kicks that made me want to try shit out. When I hit the lab, I set the computer to sobat kick and tried to hit Deejay as often as possible. When he was too close, I got him, when he stood about mid distance, I actually got nothing but him blocking, and from the furthest possible distance, so that only the back kick on the mk or the very tip of the light kick hit, I got hit by the next sobat kick.
The reason being is that Balrog has good normals, but sobat kicks can put certain characters at disadvantages. The same way Ryu can get sobat kicked from the right distance, you can hit Balrog.
However, Balrogs normals will get the counterhit 90% of the time, I took the time to think about hitting the reversal, attacking at odd intervals, or just standing still and mashing jab. I think this matchup was once way against Balrog, but because of how toned down Deejays priority is currently at, Balrog can easily stuff whatever Deejay is doing with jabs and most of his standing normals.
MGU & Up kick stuff rush punches, but you’ll never get that opportunity on a good Balrog. But the safety of sobat kicks is something we can capitilize on. I took it to the next level and worked on something that can be done against Balrog, giving a simple go. I played a 6 Balrogs, none with over 5000 points that same night, and tried out a few of my new strats. (This was done on an alt)
When attempting the safe slide: I was successful 6/15 times, I did not get counter hit once during the 6 rogs. Its not that difficult to setup. Doing a fireball first, then sliding can catch a rog off guard, but they were scrubby. The slide didn’t connect the other 9 times, I got punched in the dome and typically by a jab. However, by about the third time, I noticed a pattern of standing rh to punish and by that time I found alittle success with focus dashing and throwing. Slide will beat the jab if you get him to miss it before using it.
When attempting the safe sobat: I was successful 11/22 times, counter hit 5/22 times. This is actually very easy to do, especially with the lk version. Jab > mp > lk had been my goto combo, because it put Balrog in a position to either counter attack or hold still. The beauty of this, is that it gave me a chance to follow up with c. mk, a quick knee shot if he attacked, or a throw. Very risky, but with the right spacing before, or just a fireball to lead, and a sobat kick to follow behind, with helped get Balrog alittle further back, and the further away from the corner, the better.
Admittedly, I went 6-0 on the Rogs for the night, I didn’t get a chance to MGU a rushpunch, but I was able to combo mgu alot during the night. Playing lame with risky maneuvers after the safer moves, I got the better of rogs, who were a bit scrubby. But I can conclude in saying, that with the right spacing, you can lame balrog out, and given the right call, you can chip safely and stand in a better chance to play safe and lame him out.
I’ll hit the lab a bit tomorrow for Bison, Seth, and more Rog. Hopefully what I have here is worth something to someone.
There is no way a decent balrog is going to jump at you when you are crouching for your “ultra 2” setup. Reaction u1 to whiffed/badly timed dash punches and extra damage off of ex mgu u1 is the way to go imo.