I believe this is a counterhit only combo. Abel in particular makes a different motion compared to wherever else you hit him on the screen. Because the first hit was a counter, it might carry over to the whole combo, which in all likelihood never stopped in the first place.
However, I can confirm that even on counterhit this would work as c. lp, c. lp, c. mp, ex maxout > Ultra I
It requires two very big things though, the first being the patience to learn the combo over and over again, because from what I’ve seen in training mode, the only way to get it to land is through characters with huge hitboxes. Particularly huge front hitboxes, looming characters like Honda, Hakan, Abel, Hawk, and Gief all lurch forward in just regular situations. I had difficulty with it on T. Hawk, and he’s physically the biggest guy in the game.
The only thing that saved me is being able to take just one step forward on the Ultra. Without a counterhit, the first swipe of Sobat Festival goes just short of most characters, and therefore doesn’t hit. Unless you got them to run forward, a counterhit hitbox is enough to put them in range because the bop around retardedly the whole time, if its just a regular combo, then you need to take one or two training mode mini-sqaures forward before executing Sobat Festival.
Keep in mind, this is off of an annoying link like s. lk or c. lp > c. mp, as well as after the almost ungodly like charge buffering required to have enough off a combo EX Maxout to do something else. Honestly, I see good reason to throw your controller after awhile because this is far from an easy one.
If you use U1 already, this is good practice. If you never did, I wouldn’t start over this. AA slide, Dash, and corner EX MGU, and counterhit standing fierce still make U2 better. As even a pro-Deejay would have trouble doing this on the drop of a dime, during the tension of a match.