How do you beat someone you play like all the time, so much that you can tell when they reversal, backdash or just block but they can do the same to you and the entire match turns into a clusterfuck of secondguessing?
To be specific I play abel and he plays chun and we go around 60-40 if only because I’m incredibly weak at punishing and often drop abels 1 frame when it most matters…
There’s your problem, punish hard all the time and see your wins shoot up.
If you’re dropping the 1-frame, just practice more until you get it, it’ll come eventually, guaranteed.
During that transitional phase while you’re perfecting the 1-frame, use something else to punish that is easier, and punish everything you can.
Find parts of your play where you miss a punish, then try that out in training mode using record.
Use the 1 frame in the match even if you drop it, that’s how you’ll get the practice to be consistent with it.
How do you beat them? Don’t be you. Try doing something or a series of actions that’ll be so off beat for you that it will catch your opponent off guard. Plus, always get your punishes in! 
Get your punishes consistent, get new mixups and get random from time to time without leaving yourself too open.
Practice that one frame link, even in fights. You will start getting it eventually.
Use some other easier punishes and mix it up a little, if you keep using the same punishes over and over, you’re going to get predicted.
That shouldn’t happen against anyone.
first of all before you can even move forward into the realm of setups/mindgames/baiting etc etc .
Learn all the combos…combos aren’t some vague diverse concept like some others that fighting games force you to utilize , all you have to do is go into training mode and don’t come out until you know the combos and can hit those links .
But back on topic…if your playing someone all the time you should just look to be unpredictable and mix it up and seeing as abel is the master of knockdown mixups you should be successful with that if you keep training and improving . And always keep an eye out for patterns and when you find them learn how to exploit them , every character has different ways of dealing with situations so just keep looking for help on those abel forums .
i’m not that good myself but just thought i’d give my opinon
First off, you gotta go to the fundaments. Go to practice mode and feel out ranges, speeds, locations, and properties of all of your normals. Then do this with the special moves of your specific character. Finally do this with both your Super and your Ultras. Just knowing the fundamentals of your character and how it affects other characters and how your opponent reacts to this could be all that you need to know for any given situation.
S’up bro.
With Abel, it’s critical to learn that f+mk, s.hp link. Once you get down that link, people won’t want to get into your f+mk range. This lets you do other shit, like s.lk and jump-ins. I have trouble with the execution, too, but it’s just something that you have to constantly be practicing. Once you get used to the link, you can start using f+mk as a hit confirm. When hit confirming it, you should be telling if your opponent is standing or crouching, and if they’re blocking or not. From there, you can decide to do some things like TT on block, s.hk on crouchers, cr.lk, s.hp (that’s also a one-framer) on a standing block. Really, it’s up to you to be creative.
Abel makes second-guessing occur in every match. How? Well, this document gives you an idea:
https://docs.google.com/fileview?id=0B7S1JTWz7Q_CYzkwNWUxYzktNmY0YS00MzhhLTk5N2MtOGIzMzgzOWYzMjA1&hl=en&authkey=CPnAyIwG
I’d say your best bet is to try and learn another “style” of your character. Right now you know your opponent’s style of chun. You know how he likes to play chun. What pokes he uses when, when he’ll use the double jump in fierce vs the single, etc. And he knows your abel. Try to learn a different style of abel. I don’t know abel and I don’t know your style, but that’s a start. Watch videos of high level abels and see if you can pickout the differences in the way they play, then just apply that to your game. The good news is playing someone that knows your style will make your mixups and footsies better.