Super or maybe EX Wall Dive would always beat it.
Also, the new AA Tech you posted earlier must work 
Nah you would have to be pre emptive as fuck. Birdieās j.mk is annoying too, but it loses cleanly to clawless c.mp also if it has to be done early. Between all anti air options I donāt think people will be able to abuse shit. Anything so far that ealry s.rh loses or trades to gets beat by clawless c.mp.
sweep to avoid cross ups (you can lk CT also)
walk under c.mp vs a lot of cross ups (definitely not Birdieās)
jump back/forward air throw
c.mp vs early jump ins
lk CT
s.rh
c.fp
clawless s.fp is some matches is something I have to mess around with more
So last night we had a decent gathering (and early copies of SF5) on PS4. Noteworthy match, against a Bison player who also mained Guile and Bison in SF4. Excellent fundamentals and he probably only had the game for 1 day. He beats me 3 games straight if I recall. I was wondering wtfās going on. I reviewed the games in my head a little and came up with some possible answers.
Vegaās light roll ender does petty damage and it was the only combo I could do for most of the time, and it wasnāt damaging enough. Ex FBA is weak against someone who knows what to do (Bisonās jumping HP comes out super quick and meets it in the air) and is easily counterhit. I tried to mix it up by throwing but that didnāt work either. Mostly ended up whiffing the throw.
In the neutral game, Bisonās forward dash is downright ridiculous - and his jumping HP - well you either get hit by it or you block it, anti-airing is just not happening without major risk. His basic combos have good damage and his pressure afterwards is immense with his st.HK (crush counter normal which is +3 on block!).
Later when it was our turn to play again, I said screw it, I want a character who can anti-air properly. I beat him with Necalli who Iāve minimal experience with. sigh
This is just theorizing, but I would think Vega should try to use Bisonās lack of mobility to his advantage as well as focus on whiff punishing.
That said, I fought quite a few Bisons in the Beta as Necalli and beat most or all of them. It sounds like your opponent was pretty damn solid, so it could be that Necalli simply beats Bison, Bison beats Vega or that he just got the best of you.
Bison lacks mobility cos he canāt walk muchā¦but I found his throw game is actually still good after meaties. His forward dash has good invincibility, and all too often I saw moves go right through him while he ended up dashing in front of their face. It was really scary to defend against him with Vega. His mobility is nowhere near weak cos of his dash - which I just couldnāt react too. Itās simply too fast.
I also failed to connect EX ASE after EX FBA connects in the air. Happened a few timesā¦not sure if they got rid of the juggle potential there.
Vega has no safe forward pressure, so weāre back to trying to figure out the best way to get in safely. Getting in is probably going to be a problem, but I think once in our normal attacks are pretty good at keeping them under pressure either at range with the claw or up close with the claw off.
That Dic s.HK +3 on block CC though 
v.reversal during those maybe. Air to air, probably not such a great idea because it seems Vegaās air game kind of sucks outside his two medium attacks. Maybe try those, especially j.MP since it lowers his profile and extends his claw upwards at an angle. Might be able to avoid getting hit and either getting a trade or possibly beating them by hitting under. Dic has a pretty high jump, too. Never FBA in that match, from what I recall Dic has a pretty good ground AA and his air game is superior.
Iāll have to experiment with jumping MP as a last resortā¦but that match-up really killed my confidence. You totally donāt wanna block Bison once he jumps at you, cos his buttons are that good up-close. His crush counter conversion is excellentā¦contrary to Vega who can barely do anything now after his ground crush counter (f.HP). Vegaās st.HK isnāt really useful on the ground and even tends to whiff on some DPs (like Karinās) once they landā¦so you canāt even get a crush combo on them.
I donāt really see the point of his f.HP being a crush counter since you can hardly follow up with anything now. Iād rather have his old cr.HP back again.
I think because of its range the only thing itās useful for (unless a day 1 patch changes that) is punishing/whiff punishing unsafe high recovery moves and then v-triggering. Any other other time it eats bad punishes. Birdie can consistantly punish with headbutts.
Speaking of birdie, st. Mp eats all of Vegas ground options. It out ranges everything but f.hp which like I said is easily punished, clawed st.mp which easily trades, and it recovers too fast to be properly whiff punished by just about anything. It can be confirmed into a full combo too. I played a long set with a friend on the actual game last night and the only answer I came up with was that st hp creates a good wall against a lot of birdies forward momentum but canāt be used too predictably or that stupid Mp will rear itās head again.
On the positive side, light and medium chain are easily fba/izuna dropped whiff punished.
His main anti the little head bump can be clean beat by an early j.hp ala guiles flash kick in ultra.
All this could change after day 1 but for now I find this match up to be the most frustrating.
Edit: after experimenting a little more with birdie in the lab I need to update a couple things.
The best range to space out birdie is by using Vega hand as a guide. If there is a hands worth of space between the tip of the hand and birdies collar then birdie will whiff most normals giving you a easy st mp punish in claw.
Birdies cr.mp head bump aa is NOT beat by an early j.hp. at best it trades. My friend was just getting the timing wrong. So as others have said, donāt jump against him, and donāt fba unless itās to punish the chains.
I suppose - but then what does it being a crush counter do for Vega? Heād still be able to punish into V-trigger without it having crush properties.
I thought the whole point of crush counter normals is to get extended combos after a successful counterhitā¦Capcomās decision to nerf fw.HP x2 makes no sense to me right now.
Perhaps it will make more sense after release. Iām holding out for a day 1 patch lol.
I do agree with what youāre saying and I am equally perplexed. Ex fba has too steep an angle to connect. And everything else is too slow. Iām not sure if the angle of his CA is low enough to connect I havenāt had a chance to test it but my guess is that anything with forward momentum may be tweaked to connect after that. Maybe ex ase. I will have to try it on Tues or if someone has access already they can try it.
shoryuken just posted that Vega roundup that had the light roll as a really good aa. I hope they keep it. Even though Vegas aa problems come from close jump ins not far. In that case air grab is still the best option. It sucks they removed ultras nj. Hk. Gdlk 4 Framer with a great hit box that shielded his hurtbox. I am trying to see if j. Mp replaces it in sfv but I think it has too much startup.
Vega has some great AA options, you just have to utilize the right one for the right situation.
Seems to be that way for everyone across the board which is the same old song and dance for us. Air throw is my favorite by far. I nj aa a lot with j. Mk but for characters that fall faster I think maybe j. Lp or j. Mp may do well. Probably better to just slide out after all is said and done though if you canāt challenge it. Or block lol. Blocking always works.
My main issue right now is that it SEEMS like almost everyone has a better low forward than vega. I loved cr Mk in all previous iterations. But in 5 it seems like the range is too stubby. I know that Vega needs to be played at a specific ranges for specific situations canāt be played like older games but I got frustrated when kens low forward out ranged mine consistently. It made me feel like he had no good far lows besides sweep which is horrible on block except from max range.
I realize most of this should be put on the general discussion thread and I will move my inquires there so I donāt clutter up this one with unrelated stuff. Sorry about that.
Yeah. It seems like Vega in SFV is gonna have to deal with jump in blind spots just like in SFIV. Utilizing all AAs as well as air throw while also using cr. HK to avoid certain jumps.
Vegas is + on block, can link into other normals and has decent range, itās a great button.
Now, how the fuck do I beat Nash?
In regards to using c.mp as anti air clawless, it was the Bison match that made me figure that out. I pretty much stay with claw off so he doesnt get free jump ins. j.fp from Bison really is a pain for vega.
Pressure him with lights. He suffers from a lack of 3 frame normals and bad special start up. His fireball startup is booty so any badly spaced can be v-skilled, v-triggered, ca or jumped in on. His jaguar kick is safe but you can really just jab it out of the air with the right timing. His knee is -5 on block (grab it/jab it) and back knuckle is -13(depending on range sweep may or may not work). Most of his light and medium normals are plus except for hp and cr hk I think but sweep is the only easily punishable one.
This match up is really just going to come down to experience when he is on offense kinda like learning to fight against Codys frame traps in 4. Luckily Nash pushes himself out of pressure range if he gets too button happy. Really at this point Nashs game is to hope you make a mistake and press buttons for a ch. At least thatās what I have seen so far.
Despite it being older and some frame data changed the concept still remains the same. Pressure the crap out of Nash. You will notice that Nash can only get attacks out when Vega is farther away.
This just in: Birdieās booger attack stuffs Vegaās super.
BUT BOOGERS ARE PROJECTILES D: I guess it counts as a physical attack. Must be a hard booger.