0:27 - close range random neckbreaker is a bad idea. Almost the equivalent of whiffing a dp in terms of punishability. I can’t think of any good reasons to random neckbreaker at this point.
0:29 - if doing EX tsumuji, don’t do high -> low -> high. It’s pointless and will only scale your dmg/stun.
0:32 - this is the perfect time to safe jump, but I suppose jab pressure is good enough. You could have also safe jumped after the forward throw.
0:45 - watch your vortex spacing and timing. This is something that will have to come with experience, but eventually you’ll need to judge spacing and timing so that your vortex is safe and leaves you at plus frames on block. In this case Rose already woke up before you even threw the kunai, so this setup/timing/spacing definitely isn’t safe.
0:49 - remember that Ibuki does not have a reversal without meter. hk.kazegiri does not have invincibility frames.
1:40 - your vortex timing is completely off. Again, Rose wakes up before you even throw the kunai. You might want to consider practicing vortex timing in the training room first.
3:11 - always always buffer a special after your cr.MP. There’s no reason not to.
In the Rose set, it looked a lot more like you got free jump ins all day and this Rose hardly abused her 3frame low strong. If she abused her pokes more, you probably wouldn’t have been able to just df+MK slide in so easily. And against better players, simply varying your jump trajectory with a kunai is not going to get you in. At the very least, you should TK kunai to shorten your jump and make it much harder to react to. It might take a while to learn though. But besides jumping, you’ll probably have to learn to play footsies (difficult in this matchup) with cr.MP/st.MK/etc. or whiff punish your opponent’s pokes.
Not 100% sure, but if you do an obvious jump kunai on Rose’s wakeup, like the setup you do after a back throw, then Rose may be able to EX soul throw you.
Also it seems you have already seen some of the nuances of hiboxes and Ibuki’s tsumuji. ie: often times not all the kicks will combo, even though it should. You can solve this by always doing the low ender as soon as possible.
5:50 - if your kunai hits an airborne opponent, it puts them in a juggle state. If you land while they’re still in the air, you can juggle with raida or kazegiri. Take advantage of this. It’s free damage/stun and a free mixup setup.
6:59 - tons of execution errors here. Practice your combos!
A few notes about the Akuma set: it doesn’t look like you’re very familiar with this matchup, or Akuma’s mixups in general. Those tatsus weren’t even meaty so you could have probably just dashed away. And I’m really questioning if he was actually option selecting anything so you could have probably FA and then dashed away. Not that I’m trying to steer you away from playing solid or anything but if he’s messing up, then there’s no reason not to take advantage of it.
So far your Ibuki is… decent… I saw a lot of good fundamental play, but little to no mixup game. Don’t get me wrong; that’s not necessarily bad. In fact, it’s probably good that you already have your foundations set. You’ll need to rely on your solid play when you’re not in on your opponent. But when you do get in on your opponent, you’ll want to play Ibuki the way she was meant to be played: as a rushdown, mixup character.
In terms of Ibuki-specific stuff, this is what you should focus on, in no particular order:
- combos
- vortex
- safe jump setups
- mixups off a forward throw (usually vortex)
- mixups off a back throw (hint: they usually do not utilize a kunai)
- mixups off a raida
- mixups off a kazegiri
- SJC mixups
- I can see you’re fairly adept at cr.LP , st.MK 1 frame link, so might as well learn tsumuji loops too
- target combo usage
- mixups off her antiairs (I see you have good enough reactions to use cr.HP as an antiair, which is good, but you don’t really follow up with anything)
As you can see, it’s mostly Ibuki’s mixup game that you need to learn. And combos.
Also try to post replays where you lose. It’ll help with the critique.