Yes, I’ve experimented. It CAN be escaped by characters with light attacks that move their hitbox and make it less vertical (say, Jill is a good candidate but Firebrand is not). It can also be escaped by mashing fast light attacks, but again this depends on the character, and this escape will only work if they neutral recover. After doing the reset once or twice the opponent will catch on to this and you can do TotT instead of the medium grab, using its startup invincibility to hit them out of their escape.
Some characters can get out of it because of strange aerial movement involving attacks. Vergil’s air S comes to mind, since by doing it he sits still in the air. His attack will whiff but so will your grab if you attempt it. In that case it’s better to not try for the medium grab, expect the crossover and cancel the slide into the H command throw.
Some characters (grr, Vergil) can back recover into long range aerial pokes that don’t have a hurtbox. They can’t exactly capitalize on the hit confirm for the most part (from back recovery) but will knock you out of the reset opportunity. For this situation, TotT works wonders as well.
And some characters that somehow escape the #1 reset (don’t ask me how Nemesis can lol) can be stuck in the reset by doing reset #2 but before you do the slide, do a standing C. This will push them further so the front recovery is snatched while still being able to get back recovery.
It can also be escaped by invincible air hypers or any air hypers that have any invincibility at startup (such as Firebrand’s fire breath), though the timing is as strict as a light attack.
It is extremely hilarious to catch someone repeatedly in it, though lol
A good thing about this reset (any version) is that no assists will be able to hit you out of it before you get the grab (and maybe a clothesline in case of Doom missiles incoming; the crumple from the clothesline lasts longer than the hitstun from all the missiles and doing a crouching L to continue). Any other assists, even instant assists that are invincible will completely whiff if used on their own to try to get out because your grab will come out first and you’re invincible to assists during the grab’s hit animation. That means that Akuma assist, Haggar assist, Frank’s shopping cart, any anti-airs or any other similar assists will not deter you by themselves.
Hilarious side note: playing an annoying Vergil today he did his Maximum Vergil super and I did Taking out the Trash and somehow it connected; two times in the same match. lol
