Balrog – Even/Slight Disadvantage
We’ve been saying this match is advantage Chun since the beginning, but I personally have never really felt that way. I think Chun beats him in theory and on paper maybe, but Rog has enough going for him to turn the tide when he needs to. Some of this may be personal bias as I think my traits as a player work against me in the match. But I’ve logged a lot of hours against really good Balrogs, and while I can recognize where my faults fail me, at the same time I do feel like Rog has the tools to win. Maybe in an extended set Chun would start to edge him out (FT10 or so…which would justify a 6-4 match rating) but in a practical setting - say tournaments where you’re playing best of 3/5, I feel like Balrog can win these just as easily as Chun.
This is a match where Chun can kind of Kikoken him, but she has to be very careful about spacing. Never throw a Kikoken that he can TAP or EX Dash Punch through or jump over. Even if Chun can block in time it puts Balrog in her face on his terms, which defeats the point of throwing the Kikoken. Use it sparingly, do not use it as a fall-back tactic or rely on it as Chun’s major game plan.
The mid-range is kind of weird – while Chun technically has better normals Balrog also has ways to make it not matter. Against Rog you should forget the rh button even exists, as his buttons tend to beat her sweep for whatever reason, and sweep as AA is a terrible idea against him. Instead use hp – s.hp is a decent poke/AA, and c.hp is also good AA.
FA and neutral jumps are good ways to counter Dash Punches, but both have their risks – Balrog can hit you with an armor breaker Dash Punch, or counter the neutral jump with Headbutt or EX Dash Upper. They’re on the table as strategies but use them sparingly and don’t get predictable.
Balrog’s defense is kind of iffy – Headbutt works but is an all-or-nothing gamble for him. Once he has U1 though he gets bonus damage plus the corner carry, which makes the gamble more attractive for him. Chun can run her offense on him, but does have to be mindful of the Headbutt.
I feel like trying to play this match strictly zoning is a good way to lose. If you let Rog get meter he’s going to use it to get in and to try and find openings to do damage. It only takes one bad decision to get hit by a random Headbutt into U1, or EX Smash into Headbutt into U1. I try to be very aggressive in the first part of the match, make Rog burn meter on defense and try to bait out Headbutts that I can punish. If I get hit by one early on I only eat the Headbutt damage. If Chun can establish a moderate life lead with meter she can afford to sit down and make Balrog work to get to her/open her up. On the flipside if Rog gets a life lead with meter it becomes very difficult for Chun to open him up without taking risks.
Chun’s Super punishes blocked Dash Punches. It sounds huge, but most good Rogs are not going to just throw random Dash Punches when they see Chun sitting down. Rog also has an escape in that he can FADC out of the recovery to mess with the timing – he can either block the super or make it hit airborne (thus making the rest of it whiff). If you know the FADC is coming you can adjust your timing and punish the backdash, but this is a guessing game and Chun loses big if she’s wrong. If you block a Dash Punch and Rog has no meter though…let him have it.
Rog has a lot of tricks that can help to push him over the edge. TAP through a Kikoken, then EX Headbutt if you pressed a button. Random EX Smashes that will beat crouch tech or if your reactions just aren’t good enough. They’re tricks but they only need to work once for Rog to take damage, potentially win the round, and if nothing else get in your head. Be aware of them and try to read your opponent, see what he’s going for and when.
U1 counters any Dash Punch/TAP from mid to full screen, and is a good blocked/whiffed Headbutt punish. That having been said, this is probably a U2 match. It’s more versatile and U1 isn’t really going to discourage Rog from doing what he was going to do anyway.