Five reasons.
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No game has kept the kind of fanbase ST has kept. Even apart from fighting games, what other game from 1994 still gets regular, widespread, competitive play? Why this is, who knows, but given the eventual dropping of every other game, it’s unlikely 3S will have whatever this is.
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Third Strike’s tiers are becoming more and more top heavy, and that’ll turn people off. When the game first got popular, you could reasonably expect to win a major, high level tournament with any of Chun, Yun, Ken, Urien, Akuma, Dudley, Makoto, and Yang, and other characters could finish in high places. Then Chun, Yun, and Ken separated themselves from the pack, and while you’d see a Dudley, Makoto, or Urien win occasionally, it was rare, and the rest of the characters essentially never won anything. Now Chun and Yun have pulled away, and only Ken and to a lesser extent Makoto and Dudley are reasonable alternatives. There are anomalies, especially in single match or non-major tournaments, but this is largely true. I see no reason why it won’t get worse.
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The many people who started fighting games with Third Strike might realize that in fact Third Strike may not have been the ultimate in fighters.
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New players will no longer start with 3S as their first game. This is already happening to some extent, especially with Smash, GG, and some 3D fighters, but once SFHD comes out, and more seriously once SF4 comes out, Third Strike will have stopped being one of the top four or five grabbers for new players, and that’ll really hurt the scene’s chances for continuity.
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Um, hello, Street Fighter Four? Honestly, who here is going to be doing anything other than playing that game for the first year it comes out??