Yeah but auggy was never in any real danger from what I recall, so it was premature. It just doesnt make sense.
But from this move… I can finally see who the mastermind behind mafia is. Its genius really, you straight up tell the civs they are gonna lose if they lynch a civ while leading a civ lynch yourself. Its something I would do to feel like an evil genius. I admire it I really do.
But like you said, we can’t mislynch so us civs really can’t make a mistake here
His RC was low tier so not many people, not even mafia, believed it which is why he survived so long. Last phase RF confirmed for the thread that Augustus was Eren and with that confirmation mafia knew who they needed to kill.
Thanks for confirming that I’m the only one keeping track of how long the game has, left before we lose though.
If you would do me the honor of digging up evidence on how dirty I am, I’d appreciate it.
Or we can just go back and forth with some transparent discussion and see who wins. Let me know.
Stuff like that, Jason. It’s not that it’s necessarily wrong, but I’ve stated that I’m not going to OK an Expedition in 99.9999939% of situations.
Good find Chief. But you raise a good point, we need to lynch Mafia. Wouldn’t it be an awfully convenient strategy for Mafia to come forward with that plan, planting one or two other Mafia in the list to lull the civs into auto-piloting and not thinking. And then when they lynch a civ they’re off their game and you move in for the kill.
Pimp I can “confirm” fake role claims in addition to real ones, straight from Hecatom. However, I can’t say someone is Levi, I can only confirm them if they out themselves first. I was hoping that by pushing “he is Eren duuuuuuh” without actually saying it I could get Mafia to think I was stepping around the restrictions of the “can’t reveal identity” clause and they would keep him alive and rolehunt for Eren elsewhere. But then he didn’t do jack shit, I realized the chances of an Expedition are slim to none, and people not seeing the role claim and subsequent confirm were getting annoying, so I discarded any subtlety. Mafia killing him bought everyone else, some of which are talking, one phase.
Funny, the only people who would accurately know how long the game had until it was over is Mafia, since they know the true numbers. I see it more as you knowing exactly how long you have until Mafia wins.
I see it as 18 people alive, and (what I assume) is 4 mafia.
Thats what I thought was going on the entire time, so when he really WAS Eren, I was kinda shocked.
The way Chief worded his post, he made it sound like the game was over with a bad lynch here, but I don’t see it. We can easily afford to lynch a dormant. Mafia will most likely crash the walls and save the lynch so they can recruit at night, which my guess was Cynts plan to get recruited. Mafia might just let him die via lynch though because they don’t really need him to win do they?
“I’ve been miraculously wrong all game and am currently hesitant about doing anything. However, now [insert ellipses for dramatic effect] I understand so much about the Mafia. We’re the same, you and I. I admire that plan, etc”
On your version of the math, Pimp, you’re making very biased calculations.
Let’s say 14/4 right now and Cynt is lying. We mislynch and they get a night kill and failed recruit on Cynt. Next day we prolly lynch Cynt and they get a kill, 10/4. Now it’s, what, night 5 at that point, and they’ve clearly been paying attention to the thread so I’d wager they’ve recruited at least one Dormant, making it 9/5. If we mislynch and they recruit that’s GG.
And this is all assuming, of course, that Hannes doesn’t die and give the Mafia a double kill. And at the rate we’ve been going through roles I doubt he’ll last much longer. The Colossal Titan’s ability to immediately stop day phase is also troublesome, numbers-wise.
Also of note. The worst case scenario is currently 11-7, although that’s extremely unlikely so I’d put the realistic worst case at 12-6. If Cynt is telling the truth and he gets recruited tonight that could be very close to game. Lynch civ, Mafia kill, Mafia recruit. 9-7, lynch or (possibly) lose because of the capability of recruitment. Edit: Also the Armored Titan can just pop the walls for a double kill if they’re out of recruits or aren’t confident they have a good read on a Dormant.
Also @Vynce votes are PMd to Hecatom and locked once submitted. Interestingly enough so are abilities. I wish our roles were still alive for shenanigans. I believe Forge even said in her Last Gasp that she learned “Dirty/Clean” instantly as she submitted her action. That could, for example, set up a 50/50 for the Mafia kill. Forge outs herself as the UC/Medic role, claims that she investigated [player] tonight and immediately got a dirty result. What do the Mafia do? Kill her, assuming she told the truth? That would add validity to a fake claim if she was lying and protecting herself. Getting protected by the Medic in general is as good as confirmation in this format, so it would be pretty fun.
That’s weak. I’ve stated since day 2 that we need to assume mafia successfully recruits each night. I’m safely persons under the assumption that mafia has 7/8 players.
Is that a bad idea Pimp or should we rest easy aiming mafia only has 4 people?
We’ve had 3 nights. Last night was an UNSUCCESSFUL recruit. So at BEST, mafia blindly recruited correctly on the first 2 nights. Starting with 3 members (per the 3 roles), and getting the dormant lover day 2, WORST CASE is 6 mafia. Which I find highly unlikely. We know they have at least 4. We know they have at most 6.
I dont see why a Civ would lie about being Dormant to get lynched, whats the benefit in that? Well ok, I see one unlikely scenario, but to me they’d crash the walls to save a potential recruit. Crashing the walls stalls our only method of killing, and then they get to recruit, making the numbers that much more in their favor
Chief, a question. If Bious and Pimp are both Mafia why did Bious question Cynt’s Dormant claim? It’d be in their best interests to let it go without scrutiny, get the lynch, and gain numbers. That’s a hole I’d rather have explained now than later, if you wouldn’t mind.
Thanks for the correction. Worst case is only 12-6. My point remains that you’re trying to push people to assume it’s 14-4 and that we have leeway. Civ Willy doesn’t operate in best case scenarios, and neither can we.
Crashing the walls to save a recruit? For what purpose, he just roleclaimed “I am only useful for being recruited by the Mafia” so he’d be the next lynch.
Letting Cynt die as civ and killing: +2 for Mafia
Crashing walls, killing at night, and having Cynt die the next day: +1 for Mafia