SRK Mafia All-Stars I - Death Note: The Forbidden Fruit

Icege · 2013-08-22T19:59:55.000Z

so… no lynch day 1, mafia lynch day 2?

This is how you play, thread monsters

Pimp_Willy · 2013-08-22T20:02:24.000Z

My gift to you all:

A text file with everything MP said all game

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/48340729/MafiaOutput_Missing%20Person_22-08-2013-08-59-16_Analysis.txt

RadicalFuzz · 2013-08-22T20:02:33.000Z

Our first 2 lynches are now going to be PW and Chief, with the preferred order being Chief first. Even if we’re wrong on both of them we’ll still have one last lynch.
Tonight: 8-1
Day 3: 7-1
Day 4: 5-1
Day 5: 3-1 (We could No Lynch here if we really wanted to and get another day phase)

SWBeta:

Yeah, when I think about it, the [l] probably means Light. He was labeling Noodle as Light, which obviously isn’t the case.

Chief, you have some explaining to do.

If Chief was trying to call Noodle Light he would’ve just said [/Light] or typed it in plain text. To do this in a game where letters represent roles would be a terrible idea.

Pimp_Willy · 2013-08-22T20:04:54.000Z

In fact, take a zip file with everything said by everybody all game

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/48340729/AllPosts_endofday2.zip

(they ignore quotes, because of how quotes are displayed in the html, its kind of annoying, something I can add in later if this proves useful

Pimp_Willy · 2013-08-22T20:07:05.000Z

RadicalFuzz:

Our first 2 lynches are now going to be PW and Chief, with the preferred order being Chief first. Even if we’re wrong on both of them we’ll still have one last lynch.
Tonight: 8-1
Day 3: 7-1
Day 4: 5-1
Day 5: 3-1 (We could No Lynch here if we really wanted to and get another day phase)

SWBeta:

Yeah, when I think about it, the [l] probably means Light. He was labeling Noodle as Light, which obviously isn’t the case.

Chief, you have some explaining to do.

If Chief was trying to call Noodle Light he would’ve just said [/Light] or typed it in plain text. To do this in a game where letters represent roles would be a terrible idea.

If I wasn’t so sure that I was UC, I would have interpreted this as Chief saying he investigated Noodle and noodle was Mafia (light, he assumed). You can’t type light out and hide it as a pretend mistake when adding italics to a post. You can do it with L/l.

But since I know that I am UC, I really don’t know what his plan was, and agreeing to not log in at night kinda invalidates this.

Pimp_Willy · 2013-08-22T20:17:05.000Z

And for those who are mobile and can’t really get the zip file

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/48340729/MafiaOutput_Bious_22-08-2013-08-59-16_Analysis.txt

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/48340729/MafiaOutput_Icege_22-08-2013-08-59-16_Analysis.txt

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/48340729/MafiaOutput_kaz_22-08-2013-08-59-16_Analysis.txt

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/48340729/MafiaOutput_NoodleHead_22-08-2013-08-59-16_Analysis.txt

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/48340729/MafiaOutput_Pimp%20Willy_22-08-2013-08-59-16_Analysis.txt

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/48340729/MafiaOutput_RadicalFuzz_22-08-2013-08-59-16_Analysis.txt

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/48340729/MafiaOutput_SWBeta_22-08-2013-08-59-16_Analysis.txt

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/48340729/MafiaOutput_The%20Chief_22-08-2013-08-59-16_Analysis.txt

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/48340729/MafiaOutput_Vynce_22-08-2013-08-59-16_Analysis.txt

Icege · 2013-08-22T20:22:55.000Z

The only people that we need to be looking at come day cycle are NoodleHead (didn’t put the nail in MP’s coffin, but SWBeta and I did) and The Chief (subtle L claim yet willing to be inactive during the night?)

I also think that it is safe to assume that Misa was recruited at the beginning of the game.

MP’s most likely partners:
The Chief - Sung high praises for The Chief and was most afraid of him in the upcoming All-Star game. It would make sense (to me at least) that he recruited Chief immediately to help him out during his first time as mafia.

Vynce - They have a cute little show, and Vynce was dropping lynch votes on fellow mafia the entire South Park game. He’s inactive and has been since ~6:30am EST. If there is a night action, then we can rest assured that he is a civilian.

NoodleHead - In my head it’s because of the China connection. Noodle is originally from Taipei while MP works on the mainland.

RadicalFuzz · 2013-08-22T20:23:47.000Z

Impressions of Missing Person’s posts:

-Early on in the game he called me out for “randomly voting” for a bit before dropping it. Could implicate PW but I think he was trying to keep up his facade, not necessarily save Willy
-Briefly mentions how unlikely it would be for Bious to be Mafia again
-MP says that he “wasn’t recruited”, but never says anything about not being Light. Sly bastard
-Again, mentions how Bious has a 10% chance of random Mafia and then the human factor, yomi, etc
-Doesn’t like the “stay offline” plan, specifically says that he’ll be online and if we choose to interpret it as “Oh he’s putting in a night kill” then it’s our fault
-Makes an inordinate amount of jokes
-Says Beta either should be more useful or is not being useful on purpose because he’s mafia/he doesn’t want to die
-Mentions that the night kill will hopefully produce information
-Makes note of kaz’s record of his reads being right before getting offed at night. Trying to point us at Noodle
-Said that Chief & Beta looked suspicious and that Icege was doing good work (*)
-Called out Beta pretty heavily right before he was lynched (misdirect?)
-Gets extremely pissed off as he’s getting lynched

This tells us that Light was rather talkative. When MP recruited did the 2 decide that MP would post more often or Would MP and Misa/Teru put all their eggs into one basket, so to speak, and both be big talkers?

Pimp_Willy · 2013-08-22T20:27:06.000Z

Some formatting issues, anything which is bolded or has tag formatting is omitted in the text files, but it should at least give you a good idea of what’s going on

Bious · 2013-08-22T20:34:44.000Z

So, some thoughts about who dies tonight.

Bious- I don’t see myself dying tonight. Maybe as a random kill.
The Chief- I don’t see him dying either due to all the suspicion he’s under right now. If he does die it’ll be to cause chaos among the people who suspect Chief.
Icege - Possible, but I don’t see it happening. Random maybe.
NoodleHead- Extremely possible. If Chief dies he becomes suspect in my eyes.
Pimp Willy- Extremely possible as well… But I think he’ll stay alive for some reason. Call it a hunch.
RadicalFuzz- I don’t see him dying either. Again, as a random kill though, maybe.
SWBeta- Extremely possible since he claims to be S-Tier on day 3.
Vynce- May happen, but I don’t see it as likely.

Pimp_Willy · 2013-08-22T20:40:45.000Z

Spoiler

Double Post Checker:
Pimp Willy Double Posts: 32
Icege Double Posts: 20
Missing Person Double Posts: 18
Vynce Double Posts: 16
The Chief Double Posts: 10
NoodleHead Double Posts: 8
SWBeta Double Posts: 6
Bious Double Posts: 5
RadicalFuzz Double Posts: 4
kaz Double Posts: 2

Post Count:

Spoiler

**Pimp Willy**	 Posts: 173
**NoodleHead**	 Posts: 123
[s]**Missing Person**	 Posts: 99[/s]
**Vynce**	 Posts: 78
**RadicalFuzz**	 Posts: 67
**Icege**	 Posts: 66
**SWBeta**	 Posts: 61
**The Chief**	 Posts: 60
**Bious**	 Posts: 47
[s]**kaz**	 Posts: 9[/s]

Analysis complete

Icege · 2013-08-22T20:43:20.000Z

@Bious Could you explain how I’m at 70% when I was the one that pushed for the midnight hour Missing Person’s lynch?

Pimp_Willy · 2013-08-22T20:48:59.000Z

Yes, MP is dead because of Icege and Beta, despite Noodles best efforts otherwise

I mean, I know we’re a ballsy group of guys and all… but damn that would be an epic sellout.

“Oh you recruited me? Fuck you you’re dead and I’m taking over”

This isn’t the breaking bad mafia game : )

Bious · 2013-08-22T20:53:19.000Z

Icege:

@Bious Could you explain how I’m at 70% when I was the one that pushed for the midnight hour Missing Person’s lynch?

Just a feeling I had when I ran the numbers up. I wouldn’t worry about it too much. Right now I’m looking at other people.

RadicalFuzz · 2013-08-22T20:53:21.000Z

Legitimately though, that could be an interesting tactic. Have one Mafia lead a wagon on the other one for half-decent reasons. Then, if the surviving Mafia played well, he’s not very suspicious. Honestly that’s what I was thinking of doing depending on who the other Mafia was if I got recruited.

Icege · 2013-08-22T20:56:10.000Z

That’s why I’m toying with the idea that Vynce might be Misa as well. Maybe he came up with the plan assuming that it was a way to get him to coast under the radar again. When I checked his profile on my phone it said recent activity 9:56am but when I checked on my laptop it said he hadn’t been on for over 6 hours as of 12pm EST.

No night action tonight for me means that we lynch The Chief, otherwise we might have to lynch Noodle as much as I’d rather not. If it hadn’t been for SWBeta we would be sitting here with Light still alive.

Bious · 2013-08-22T20:57:53.000Z

You know, I have a theory as to why this plan won’t work. Should I say it now or later?

RadicalFuzz · 2013-08-22T20:59:07.000Z

I’m leaning towards now, since if Vynce or Chief come back to tell you it’s wrong they obviously came online at some point.

Icege · 2013-08-22T20:59:43.000Z

Misa suspects: (I doubt it’s Teru)

The Chief
NoodleHead
Vynce

Most likely civilians:

Icege c(’.'c)
SWBeta

NoodleHead · 2013-08-22T21:00:55.000Z

do it now, so we can discuss what we should do in the incoming day phase.

@Icege and Peewee: gotta say that I am sorry for not following up w/ the plan.