Predicting And Understanding A Situation

Newbie Saikyo Dojo
21

As far as playing players better or worse than you, I’ve had a theory and I’ve never had that theory let me down, though I’m not always able to use it.

If you really want to get better you NEED 3 different types of players to play against:

  1. A Player who is either slightly worse than you, or a good deal worse than you but still at least an intermediate player that can at least do combos and has a semblance of strategy. Having a player like this is good because they are basically your practice dummy. You can use alternative strategies against them, play new matchups, really get your autopilot down and engage your muscle memory.
  2. A player that is about equal to you. This player will challenge you to keep up with them, but they won’t be overly challenging. This kind of player will constantly force you to adapt and switch your style up,if both of you are at least slightly above intermediate. This player gives you practice avoiding your mistakes and getting to predictable.
  3. A player that is decently better than you. Basically a guy that is going to beat you 7-3 or 8-2 in a 10 game stretch. This is the player you play to see how far down the rabbit hole goes. He will expose you badly and show you what you need to work on. He will also show you things that you may not have known were possible that you can out in your own game.

In all of these scenarios there is a symbiotic relationship. For instance, when you play the bad player, you are his “good player” that he needs to play in order to have his faults exposed and see where he’s going wrong.

When you are playing the evenish player, well you are doing for them what they are doing for you, so there’s a win win situation being had.

When you play the really good guy, you are his bad guy he gets to practice on. He gets practice to make his shit even tighter in a non stressful environment, you get to try and steal his tricks and learn.

Whenever I’ve gotten REALLY good at any fighting game I’ve had these types of players around me.

I tend to stagnate when only playing players way worse than me or way better or on my level.

I really feel like you need every kind to git gud past a certain natural level.

22

LOL… I watched over the match and didn’t read the paragraph that went with it. I assumed you were the ryu and was about to start telling you all the things you were doing wrong and that the Sakura player was obviously better!

Then I noticed the Sakura was the one losing and I decided that was actually you.

Well, ok:

I thought you were “better” than the ryu. Your movement was better at the beginning. All he was doing was standard low level bulldogging and he had no in and out spacing at all.

Now there are lots of small things and some big things wrong with your play, but the most glaring one was you really NEVER anti aired him. Once he knew that, he didn’t really try to overly exploit it, but that combined with the fact that your offense was weak was enough for him to get confident against you and start to make standard reads against you.

You started off decent, but you seemed to be waiting for him to fall apart rather than forcing him to fall apart.

Your spacing got a bit to predictable towards the end as well. Never doing pre emptive neutral jumps to cover the fireball and jump attack at the same time. Rarely to never resetting spacing by jumping backwards.

And it’s been years and years since I played A3 but you aren’t using Sakura st.hk… why? Is it not available in A-ism? I can’t remember but that’s literally her go to poke.

Neither of you are really playing the matchup correctly. You are supposed to be standing relatively close to each other for most of the match and trying to play footsies with Sakura st,hk and fireball, and ryus cr.mk, cr.hk and fireball. And trying to wiff punish each other while protecting against anti airs.

If either of you is uncomfortable playing this way, what tends to happen is the player more comfortable playing at that range will back the opponent into the corner and own them for free once there.

This is because if one player is trying to play close and the other is trying to play far, the players playing far will need to constantly back up in order to maintain the correct spacing, and that is why they get backed into the corner an destroyed. Oldschool is about maintaining your spacing, not giving it up, but it’s also about knowing when to give it up also. You just don’t want to give it up for nothing.

23

Because over the years of playing this game. I learn that her st.hk just get stuff by fireballs and jump-ins or did I learn wrong!
This guy ping was 100-150. Meaning he 9 frames of animation skipping. I totally need more time to react!

I have a problem of knowing when to block a air attack or just stop it. I tried to distance my attack just enough to where he does land so I can hit him during the ‘landing’ frames.

Yea, I don’t know how to analyse a situation like this one to come up with a conclusion of using hk and fireball at a certain distance. I don’t know exactly where the distance I’m suppose to be when fighting against Ryus online. I know from playing ‘offline’ in the arcade days footies is just much easier and different because there is no start up skip animation. Like shit! I can block fireballs on reaction at just slight off range of ryu sweep kick. Not online!

24

play 3S instead.

25

There’s a few things you should recognize about your play, and your opponent’s play.

  • You always jump from the same distance. The Ryu player already has this read on you to the point where he just randomly uppercuts at that distance in one round because he is expecting the jump.
  • The reason you jump here is because you’re not comfortable with the ground game. You try hard to avoid that mid-range either by going back further and trying to zone(?) him, or by jumping. He is expecting this. That’s why you could get away with the walk up throws. He expects you to attack from the air, not the ground. Exploit this.
  • It seems he isn’t that comfortable with the ground-game either. Or perhaps he just thinks you’re free to aerial attacks (I don’t know if you landed a single anti-air). He uses the common beginner strategy of “poke-poke, cross-up”. You should always be ready for that. Better still, intentionally put yourself in that position and be prepared to counter him with an anti-air (a jump back attack works, but try to maintain your position if possible with a grounded AA). Expect the “double jump”. Also, if you notice an opponent prefers jumping to grounded pressure, try to force a footsie game. Don’t use extended blockstrings. Stop your strings at the distance where he has to challenge you on the ground, jump, or back-off. Since you know he likes to jump at this range (you’re basically simulating the “poke-poke x-up” range for him), it’s free Anti-Air damage.
  • Notice how much better you do in the first round of the last match by focusing on grounded attacks. His jump should have been expected since you were pushing him to the corner. Once you have him cornered back off and let him hang himself. The onus is on him to fight his way out. Use her st.hk for horizontal space control and cr.hp for vertical control (at the appropriate ranges, of course). And of course once you manage to pressure him, you should expect the reversal super. It does crazy damage in X-ISM.
  • You should always consider the situations where you lose health. Did you put yourself in that situation, or did he “play” for it? Think about that while reviewing your matches. Something that might lead you to some sort of insight… he rarely cornered you. And when he did, he backed off. This should tell you something.

So to answer your initial question, sometimes it’s easier to try to figure out what you’re doing wrong, rather than what he opponent is doing right. A very cursory review of your replays should at least tell you that you lose damage in the same situation most of the times (bad jumps, weak x-up defense).

26

That’s not why I jump. My jump is to counter to his fireball. It block hit more than twice. which mean it condition me to expect the ‘pain’ block. That’s why I jump. I tried to follow TKR advice “When you are trying to whiff punish, you shouldn’t be trying to react to a move, you should be predicting it.” I tried to be one step ahead and just do it. I coulden’t fireball back because it comes out to slow and I get stuffed. That is why I I’m so far to fireball.

When I was playing him, I have no idea wth he thinking or what to think tbh. I’m to busy tryna remember if I’m in range for my attack to work anyways and condition him as much as as I can so I CAN read him. I realize all my years of playing video games I can make a player predictable by training the hell out of him by forcing the same situation and sequence over and over(if the sound is randomized than its not going to work). That’s why I just spam fireballs at that far range. I want him to block it So I can go in with an overhead or grab -> crossup combo.

Oh, I thought I classical condition differently. I made him block my moves more than 5 times. The “block sound” is the unconditioned stimulus and his unconditioned response was a “block”. I repeated a few times on purpose. That is why I believe I can walk up to him and grab him.
What did you look for to recognize this?

He usually make the whiff sound on purpose then fireball. I believe he was classical conditioning me. The “whiff” sound is the unconditioned stimulus and my ‘jump-in’ was the unconditioned response. The previous rounds he drill it down hard. Not sure if that’s how mind games work but this guy condition the shit of me with the whiff ‘sound’. after a few rounds, everytime I hear that same whiff sound I just want to jump so badly. My mind get block off and I have flash backs of him fireballing!

I got hit most of time because I was trying to delay the timing just so I can grab him or just play plain unpredictable. That is why I drop my combos. Turns out I need to work on timing it much closer!
Thanks you all for advice and feed back!

27

You can counter the fireball by walking forward and poking (see 6m12s - it’s no coincidence that you did better this round). To maintain the “safe” space he will need to walk backwards. This is my point. Don’t be afraid of the ground game.

I think you should change your mindset. You don’t need to try to react or predict everything. You don’t need to try to whiff punish everything. Sometimes it’s better just to try to prevent things from happening in the first place (“prevention is better than cure”). If you are just trying to predict a fireball, then you are doing nothing to prevent that fireball. Controlling the horizontal space with your pokes is a better deterrent (in this case), even if the pokes are blocked. As I said, he will either need to adjust his spacing (by walking backwards), jump, or challenge you in footsies.

28

What I was saying is that you shouldn’t be trying to react.

You seem to have read something online about people and conditioning and got it all muddled up. You aren’t trying to get them conditioned to any sounds. That will never work. And in fact thinking that’s how you do it is what gave him some super power to get you to react to the sound of a whiffed moved. You condition people by doing this repetitively so that they start to think that the next time they are the same situation, you will do the same thing. They will do something to deal with what they think is coming, and you will expect that. Then do something else to counter the counter you think they will do.

He wasn’t whiffing the sound on purpose. Very important to stop thinking about the sounds in the game, they can be helpful, but often people are playing with their own tunes jamming in the back ground. So no matter what sounds you make, you aren’t affecting them. What he was doing is whiffing the move, to keep you at a distance he is comfortable with. Because when he is whiffing the move, not the sound, you are to scared to walk in on him and take charge.

You got hit because you got out played. Changing things up and trying different things is the right thing to do. You just did it poorly and tried the wrong things. Against this guy. Some of that stuff may have worked against a different opponent. So never be scared to try mixing it up with others you play with.

But as I said in a few posts back. You are jumping to far ahead of yourself. Learn some solid combos. Get your spacing down. And learn to anti air. Then just use that for months and months and perfect it. You don’t need to condition your opponents. You can do super well without it. You need to develop your basics and in doing so, with all the online practice, you will learn to read them. And learning to read your opponent is the first part of being able to condition them. And honestly, its more important. Slow down and do the work you need to first.

29

Lol is he thinking about Pavlov’s dog? That’s not the sort of conditioning they’re talking about…

30

You really need to ask the people you’re playing against because they will likely have a better idea of what you’re doing wrong. After all, they were the ones banking on it. If they won’t help you, then play something else with players who will help you.

31

I have ADHD and I’ve been playing fighter for 17 years. Getting good is not going to come quickly or easily.

First thing is to set small realistic goals and gradually build on those goals. some example can be landing a bnb combo, hit confirming, and punishment for x amount of time.

I recommend reading this

second thing is to be humble and throw away your ego. Accept the fact your going to have limitation but cotend with them and make your weakness into strength. IF you do havd mental disability. be mindful how that’s going to affect your gameplay and learn to work with it. BE AWARE THAT THIS IS ULTIMATLY A TRIAL AND ERROR PROCEDURE.

If your using fightcade I highly recommend you explore some other fighters, not all fighter are created equal. IF you suffer from ADD, I wager you have a hard time Micromanaging problem and are easily overwhelmed. fighter majority of the time are fast pace having limited time to react to the situation on top of having you managing your tools set as well as your opponents can be very taxing. While some like to say SF titles are slow paced, I still find them problematic to learn because they have to many buttons to manage imo. You might not die as quickly compared to other fighter but you will also feel powerless because the game was designed that if your character lacks an option, their little to nothing they can do to compensate and i personally find that detrimental.

This is why I recommend staying away from Sf title or 6 button fighters in general which will include the majority of capcom games. I recommend exploring SNK titles. Since you like Alpha games I highly recommend Breakers Revenge. They’re very similar with the exception of no air guard and no ism to micromanage. The only mechanic specific thing you need to worry about is “breaking” which basically mean you can cancel recovery frames of hitstun/blockstune into commands.

32

ADD or ADHD has no effect on playing games. The practicing does. If you think you problem is getting in the way of practicing then focus on how to better practice than the game itself because you are holding yourself back. Take your meds, sit down, and practice.

33

In light of the ADHD discussion, I would actually agree with this. It’s a game that really let’s you get in there and be aggressive, as opposed to being patient and waiting for an opening.

34

They’re trying to bait specials or a grab attempt. That’s why they walk in and out. They see you aren’t doing anything about it so they walk back in for free.

Never try to grab when you’re in the corner unless you know it’s going to hit. I usually throw out a crouching medium or quick normal with decent range when I see them shimmy.

Don’t be too aggressive using strings and frame traps because they will mash a shoryuken which will beat most gaps clean.

  1. Understand why
  2. Learn how to apply
  3. Watch the opponent die
35

Analysis of the video https://youtube.com/watch?v=qD6HOLDv6yU

Spoiler

imo wrong spacing at the beginning.
you cannot read that good to play the fireball game.
So a good spacing is where you slightly cannot be hit with the longest poke.

0:43 good decision your opponent expected a poke and you decided for a throw
0:47 you tried the same thing your opponent got the right read. stayed defensive expected something and antiaired you right.
1:01 you could try to go in and throw like you did at 1:05
1:05 good decision you made him whiff his normal went in for a throw
1:11 didnt combo but opponent didnt block the last hit
1:14 tried to go in and throw.
here you can go in an block or poke to bait him to other things
1:15 sweep in wrong spacing you need better understanding when you can hit with that normal
1.17 cr.mk was just bad luck you had no info for that situation so you tried to poke with cr.mk. this where you can assume he changed his mind to offensive
1:24 you could make a better decision:
try to go in throw
try to go in his range and go out to whiffpunish
try to stop before his range to whiffpunish
try to step in his range and counterpoke to counterhit his normal
1:47 exe error crossup failed maybe there is a better button for crossup
or you need a better understanding of spacing where you can jump to hit a crossup
1:49 no idea if cr.mk is special cancelable but you timed it atleast wrong it wasnt a cancel it was more like a link
1:55 a spacing which i think is wrong because you dont gain much from throwing fireballs and you dont antiair really so it isnt a space where you dont want to be
1:59 didnt antiair probably miscalculated the space to make his jumpin whiff and go for throw
1:59 ok attempt for a whiffpunish but going forward for a throw might have worked.
to whiffpunish that cr.mk you would have to guess that he will do a cr.mk and have the right read on the timing to whiff punish that cr.mk
2:01 a unconfirmed super, which you shouldnt do as long as you can have a combo which you can confirm into super.
2:04 he wasnt standing so the timing vor cr.mk to hit was a read which went wrong you should try to play more reactive in that situation
2:11 ryu went back to bait a jumpin and you didnt jump which is good.
against his hadoken you should try to make a neutral jump not a jump at him just as a info
2:15 miscalulated spacing for cr.hk you need to work on that which made him whiff punish you
2:40 you understand concept of counterpoking
2:53 again whiffed cr.hk
3:40 you didnt punish his srk
3:45 you might have been able to whiffpunish his normal with cr.hk
3:45 you should have just poked. Its common to wait for jumpins when your opponent is in the corner it looks like you panicked and tried to get out of corner
4:20 you could have tried to just go in for a throw
4:23 imo you need the reflexes to be able to block that
4:26 that jump was predictable
4:53 he never went in for a throw so why should he do something you could counterhit or even connect with him on block. Again miscalculated spacing of cr.hk
5:03 again no punish
5:09 whiffed cr.hk
5:11 you see him standing up and going forward thats the right thing to do.
The question is did you do that on reaction or was it on instinct like 2:04?
6:12-6:16 that is the way to gain information and that is the spacing you want to be
6:45 just block that thing

you have trained the ryu player to not throw many fireballs.
But you didnt use it to your advantage. Only one time in the last match 6:12-6:16

You cannot predict every move from your enemy.
You create a situation as often as you can and look at his behaviour. After that you try to predict his next decision.
It looked like you mostly do things that are risky and do dmg like a jumpin or overhead like in last match.
a situation is based on frameadvantage,spacing and meter.
The more important thing is to know what you can block on reaction, what you cannot block on reaction and when it is possible for your opponent to do that.
you can just block most fireballs. So just let him throw tons of it. then you can analyze his pattern.
Do safe and maybe non damaging stuff. Like go in his range and poke.
do that thing until he does something. do that whole pattern again and try to know when he is doing it.
then punish him for doing it.
the magic lies in doing safe pressure.Combine 2:40 with 6:12 and 1:05
and work on your execution.
Like the failed crossup 1:47
whiffed cr.hk 2:15 , 2:53