Pretty much this. In a more detailed view:
SNK went full 2D because that’s what their fans wanted and the mid-90’s sprites would in no way fly on this generation of consoles nor on HDTV’s. Yes making those HD sprites were costly (probably more then any other 2D game) but in the end it will all pay off as they’ll probably use them for the next ten years as well as it will probably slightly expand their fanbase from others going “Ohh” and “Ahh” over the graphics.
Arc System Works went the 2D route for various reasons. Sammy pretty much owns the Guilty Gear license so it would be the best to make the game mimic Guilty Gear as much as possible without being a total copycat which is highly tied with a games art-style. Also when you’re known as “THE 2D fighting developer” in the biggest fighting game region, as well as that’s how you made your fame it would be best to continue to ride that wave instead of trying to build a new one.
Capcom went “2.5D” for obvious reasons. Unlike SNK or Arc System Works, Capcom wasn’t building upon something, nor were they looking for niche sales. They were just trying to see if their legendary IP still had some strength left in it.
Street Fighter lost much of its importance and significance during the latter 90’s due to titles consistently coming out. After a 6th revision of Street Fighter II, Alpha 1 and Alpha 2, a 3D spin-off along with it’s revision, as well as a crossover between Xmen ALL HAPPENING IN UNDER 3 YEARS the mainstream crowd was getting weary of Street Fighter, and by the time the true sequel came out nobody gave a fuck. Yeah it was only in the dying arcades, but being the sequel to the 2nd biggest franchise of all-time at the time making such a small release is still shocking.
Did Capcom slow down the process? Hell no. 2 revisions of Street Fighter III, 5 more crossover games, another sequel to the Alpha series, 2 more 3D spin-offs along with one of them releasing their own revision, and God knows what else Capcom ended up not just running Street Fighter into the ground, but their whole “2D Fighter Dynasty”.
As years past it was obvious that the IP was still heard of and known for. Now what Capcom was wondering when considering Street Fighter IV was whether or not the IP could still be relevant in this day in age. In one hand if marketed correctly it could be huge hit. On the other fighting games in general are near death as even the “flashy 3D fighters” are near their knees. In order to test this they’d have to make it as cost-efficient and appealing to the mainstream market as much as possible. The result is what you see.
Each of the companies went for what seemed the most logical for them to do. SNK went 2D because they can reuse their sprites for years to come making it a investment as well as them still keeping a huge chunk of their fanbase. Arc System Works went with sprites because that’s what they’re known for and if something is going well there is no reason to step off the tracks. Capcom went 2.5D because it’s what the mainstream market wants, yeah they COULD have gone with sprites and the game still could have sold with the correct advertising (doesn’t stop Mario), but back then they were just trying to see if the IP had relevance and the best way to do that for sure is to play it safe as much as possible.
And in terms of the future it looks that at least 2 will definitely continue on expanding their path. Both HD Remix and SFIV were both widely successful. I wouldn’t be surprised if Capcom continues to put their full 2D fighting titles on downloadable services and their 2.5D fighting titles on retail. Of course they can probably do “Remix’s” of their previous fighters in 2.5D and release 2D retail games but that’s a bit in the future for me to judge. Arc System Works will probably continue to focus on arcades in Japan for their 2D fighters. I wouldn’t be surprised if they continue creating other fighting IP’s so they can further carve in a name for themselves especially with Capcom and SNK stepping up their plates. SNK? Well King of Fighters XII isn’t out yet but I highly doubt they’ll looking for Street Fighter IV success and it’s all but inevitable that the game outsells their recent efforts during its release.
So how do I feel about these trends? Well very good. It seems that each company is heading in their own direction. To me Capcom is trying to capture the biggest market as possible. Arc System Works is looking to capture as much as the core fighting game market as possible. And SNK is looking to further draw in people into their fanbase. Seeing such diversity and production in 2D fighters has me feeling that the genre is far more well then it was last generation.
Not to sound pessimistic but I highly doubt that one hit title is going to bend the scene.
I definitely agree that the fear of change throughout the scene was a huge reason for the genre falling in popularity, but to me the biggest reasons were always
A. Publishers didn’t bother finding a new home for the genre even after the arcades dwindled (this is especially true for 2D fighters)
B. The genre never got the “revolutionary game” it needed nor did it follow the games that took a sidestep with the formula
