The goal of cr.MP and s.MK is to hit Juri out of the stores (which is what I try to do most of the time). Throwing out cr.MK out for the sake of beating cr.MP and s.MK will usually lead to a whiffpunish (ibuki cr.HK) into vortex.
If the Juri player whiffs a store in front of Ibuki she can net a decent amount of damage into her vortex.
I think they’re even on that.
The use of bonsho kick (fwd.HK) is imo at juris cr.MK range where she uses fireballs. You can pretty much land that thing everytime she does a LK fireball at that range. Of course you have to predict it but the damage is in your favor.
What I meant with overhead and the bonsho kick is that Ibuki has no need to jump because she can move around the maze of fireballs without eating chip damage and exposing herself too much.
Of course she has focus dash, block and neutraljump but having more tools in your arsenal which has the be taken into consideration by the Juri player can never be bad right ?
Neckbreaker > b.MP > j.HP is a 4 frame safejump. Kasatushi can be chased down on reaction with Neckbreaker (the up version can be punished with cr.HP SJC dash into an ambiguous reset)
Neckbreaker > b.MP with delay > j.HP j.MK targetcombo hits high twice and blows up focus. Thats the whole reason behind it. You can use it to mix up the safejump and it also blows up Dashpunches but thats another matchup.
Neckbreaker > b.MP > j.HP/j.LP > overhead. Use it as a delayed crouchtech bait not as an overhead. The overhead is just a little bonus imo.
Neckbreaker > b.MP > emptyjump overhead beats throws and crouchtechs or anything of that sort. If you know that someone is using standtech then use it. It’s airborne and can’t be thrown.
Neckbreaker > b.MP > emptyjump cr.LK / low hits low (suprise) and hey it’s an emptyjump cr.LK.
Of course it’s not as ambiguous as the kunai vortex and I exaggerated a bit earlier but she as a handful of ways to land hits off a safejump and to shut down the Kasatushi and to get ambiguous jumpins off the same mixup (which is walking a few steps forward whiffing b.MP > j.LK can crossup depending on timing, j.HP can make ex wheel and kasatushi whiff and on block it hits front and it’s all timing specific etc.)
Instead of b.MP you can whiff cr.MK (which is still safe vs EX pinwheel if you don’t believe me go and test) and then use superjump j.LK which hits crossup. There are enough ways to telegraph a mixup and then mix it up a bit.
Also the Ibuki player can always whiff the airnormal earlier if he reads a Kasatushi so he can throw.
And as I said the same mixups I mentioned here (the safejump ones to be more specific) are also available off a MK tsumuji.
MK tsumuji > b.MP > j.HP (which is also not ambiguous thats why I call it safejump) is actually a 5 frame safejump and works vs Fei Long, Seth, Viper etc.
If you don’t want to whiff b.MP then whiff fwd.LK and it’s a 4 frame safejump or do fwd.LK whiff into superjump.LK. Depending on spacing it can be ambiguous unless its done from absolute max range.
The hitboxes off a forward throw are fine too. I don’t see the problem
s.MP s.MP s.MK is also a string of 2 frame links, it might be harder on Juri because it’s a standing only combo but then theres still TC4 (4hits) into s.LP s.MK neckbreaker which actually does 10 more damage than s.MP s.MP s.MK xx Neckbreaker (290 vs 280). Also if you use the EX Neckbreaker you get 310 dmg which is more than a hitconfirmed tsumuji loop (cr.LP s.MK xx LK tsumuji etc)
Also off a MK tsumuji Ibuki can get some ambiguous instant air kunais if she slides or uses the LK dash into instant air kunai (off ~ max range +/- a few boxes) She can also bait the Kastushi by making the Kunai whiff.
Reversal FSE vs Kunais is only good if the Kunai is as meaty as possible. If it’s done like 2 frames later you get blown up and wasted your Ultra and if you try to focus dash out of everything Ibuki can just do a reaction sweep.
Same applies to the Kunai.
She has safejump mixups which are universal, kunai mixups, ambiguous jumpins, dash mixups and there is just no universal escape for Juri nor is there an universal setup that beats everything Juri has but Ibuki can limit her options to an extent though.
I haven’t tested it yet but can’t Juri just s.MK all day on wakeup ?