I’m not professing to be an expert, but one thing I try to do is condition him to block early in the match.
Way 1: more wakeup ex headbutt. I saw you try it. It got blocked and he blew you up for it. You quit after that.
If you consistently do it in the match, he’ll think “what a noob” and be conditioned to wait and not press a button on your next wakeup. That’s one opportunity to wake up, slight walk forward x throw or at the least ease up the rushdown pressure.
Way 2: Use a mix of st mk, df hk, and f mp to keep him at bay. The way he kept poking, you’ll score a hit/crush counter with that df hk knocking him back. Keep moving back and forth in and out of range. Now he’ll be conditioned to expect pokes. Most likely he’ll say fuck this and jump in when in range. A few st hk’s will train him…nope. His AA game is on point.
If I was playing him, I would’ve started like you and threw a few fireballs to see how he would react.
Build up the white life. Mix up lp, mp, charged fireballs. One will hit and take away the white life. He’ll get tired of it and start coming forward. Get your st HK / f mp ready. After you anti-air the first jump in, wait. Wait for an immediate second jump in. If it happens, anti-air that. Your goal is to show him that your anti-air game is on point. Leaving him to poke his way in.
Now, here I would st mk if just outside the range. When outside, I throw the df hk / st mk mix. Eventually, I’ll catch him hitting a button or trying a charged hp and the df hk will crush counter him back. Walk slightly forward to maintain range and wait for that jump in again. Need to remind him that your anti-air game is on point. No jump in?? Continue the st mk / df hk pokes.
Now once you sense he’s on the defensive and hits less buttons, use your f mp to get in. With the f mp, I mix up cr lk, cr lp, hp headbutt & f mp x throw.
If he gets aggressive, back up like you did without dashing if possible. Maintain the outside range. Expect jump ins here. And if you get pushed to the corner. Wait for the right moment to get out.
Repeat strategy.
Works for me a lot of the time. There are a few giefs that blow my shit up despite my gameplan. But this could be a start.
Let me know if it helps!