Let's talk about money - The Finance Thread

Richter · October 21, 2016, 10:38pm

Paying off my student loans this weekend :party: It’s gonna feel good to be free.

BB_Hoody · October 21, 2016, 11:52pm

Congradulations bro. That is a big accomplishment. You had a debt, and instead of searching for ways out of it. You worked hard, and paid what you owe. Now you’re just stacking money. I’m just beginning that road, And hope to get rid of my loans in the next 3 years.

Richter · October 22, 2016, 12:22am

Thanks man. I was kind of fortunate in one aspect of being sent on an military deployment to Kuwait for a year. Free room and board, food, and a tax-free paycheck. Helped me get enough money that would have otherwise took years to accumulate. I know you do that airplane mechanic gig so you might want to look into overseas contract work if you are interested. I’m not very knowledgeable about civilian overseas jobs but, thought I would suggest it since I hear good stories coming from vets who now do contract work like that.

BB_Hoody · October 22, 2016, 1:47am

Richter:

VampireSoldier:

Richter:

Paying off my student loans this weekend :party: It’s gonna feel good to be free.

Congradulations bro. That is a big accomplishment. You had a debt, and instead of searching for ways out of it. You worked hard, and paid what you owe. Now you’re just stacking money. I’m just beginning that road, And hope to get rid of my loans in the next 3 years.

Thanks man. I was kind of fortunate in one aspect of being sent on an military deployment to Kuwait for a year. Free room and board, food, and a tax-free paycheck. Helped me get enough money that would have otherwise took years to accumulate. I know you do that airplane mechanic gig so you might want to look into overseas contract work if you are interested. I’m not very knowledgeable about civilian overseas jobs but, thought I would suggest it since I hear good stories coming from vets who now do contract work like that.

Oh hell yeah there is money to be made in contract work, especially overseas. But you gotta know your shit. Because it’s usually just a team of two dudes maintaining a Aircraft. So you don’t have a bunch of other experienced mechanics to run to for help with something or to explain something to you. That’s the phase I’m in now. I’ve improved since I’ve been here at Bombardier 4 months ago. But I’m not quite ready for contract work. A older dude recommended I stick it out here and learn and git gud for the next 2 years at least. Then I should look into it.

Scanman · November 1, 2016, 5:12pm

What’s everyone doing to front-run the election?

I’m wondering if I should sell my RBL ETF (an ETF for Russia). I think it will be affected by who wins. Hillary- it goes down, Trump- goes up.

Also, I’m thinking if Hillary wins, the market might go up -a little-, but her victory is already priced into the market.

But if Trump wins, the market will TANK. However, I’m not sure if the money will go international, or to bonds, real estate, etc etc.

crucades · November 1, 2016, 5:57pm

Trunp gonna win.

Scanman · November 1, 2016, 6:18pm

I agree.

I’m so paranoid right now, I’m considering withdrawing my 401k. There’s only about 7k in the account, but considering it could halve in a few weeks… cash might be better.

Btw no one else should do what I do unless they’re also super damn paranoid.

Ken34 · November 2, 2016, 5:55am

there are signs in the market that there is a 80% chance trump will win, there was also a major sign in the vix futures that points to a possible big sell off coming within the next couple months.

Starhammer · November 2, 2016, 2:19pm

I just saw the final nail go into the coffin of my last piece of debt. Probably shouldn’t have done it the way I did, but fuck it. I wanted to end the year debt free and now it is all gone. I also managed to cut $50 a month out of my cable bill. Who even watches HBO anymore anyways? Now it is time to play with power.

-Starhammer-

hubcapsignstop · November 2, 2016, 3:44pm

Nonsense penny stock like AMMJ been going up like 30% a day just because MJ in the name. Up like 2000% since Sept lolololl1. Will continue after ballot initiatives pass? Or no? hahaaa playing with fire

Scanman · November 2, 2016, 4:59pm

My gold made back all of its losses from the last 2 months.

Starhammer · November 8, 2016, 1:28pm

lol. I must admit I also thought about that. Might do it after the election.

Yo. Who here does dividends? I’m working on that and I’ve got only a little bit set up so far. I think I mentioned it here before, but I’m basically trying to turn it into passive income like “extra paychecks”. You know, money coming in two times a month or maybe even once a week. I know it’s possible, but I wanted to see if anyone else was going the div route and if so, how is it working out, what are you doing or not doing, etc. Throw strats at us and I’ll try to return the favor.

EDIT: Also, what stocks do you think will blow up if and when Trump gets elected? Hands on triggers men…

-Starhammer-

Ken34 · November 8, 2016, 4:54pm

i bought some gold(the ETF, not physical) yesterday in preparation for today and tommorow, should be a wild ride.

Ken34 · November 9, 2016, 7:46am

if trump actually wins you can take these current numbers and probably almost double them to the downside.

https://scontent-atl3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/t31.0-8/15039452_10154794009531953_7228416228720764979_o.jpg

Shin_Jr · November 9, 2016, 11:43am

what money? everything crashed

Jion_Wansu · November 9, 2016, 1:14pm

17,000 plus is too high anyways…

Scanman · November 9, 2016, 8:30pm

Not much happening. Guess the PPT is active today.

hubcapsignstop · November 11, 2016, 5:11pm

US weed scam stocks crashing back down to earth and looks like people are shifting to the Canadian legit hopes. Hope nobody got burned. This sector is really interesting. New to this short term investing ish (and dont touch drugs), but anticipating mass movement of an investing group is scary but satisfyng (so far; been meaning to pick up a technical analysis primer). Trying to stay a step ahead of the group based on your read of their perception of the scenario (’…sell the news’), even if what you are doing seems counterintuitive. Need to stay truly humble if you are to honestly weigh what you know versus a group intelligence. Does this foreshadow a similar bull market for the Canadian counterparts in Feb-Apr 2017?

Scanman · November 14, 2016, 7:22pm

Guess this roach motel will go on a little longer, huh? Not sure why Trump’s election would cause stocks to go UP.

Reticently · November 14, 2016, 8:56pm

‘Trump Thump’ whacks bond market for $1 trillion loss

Spoiler

Donald Trump’s stunning victory for the White House may mark the long-awaited end to the more than 30-year-old bull run in bonds, as bets on faster U.S. growth and inflation lead investors to favor stocks over bonds.

A two-day thumping wiped out more than $1 trillion across global bond markets worldwide, the worst rout in nearly 1-1/2 years, on bets that plans under a Trump administration would boost business investments and spending while firing up inflation.

"We’ve had a sentiment shift in the bond market. We’ve seen it, too. People have already started reallocating out of bonds and into stocks,” said Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive officer of Los Angeles-based DoubleLine Capital, which has more than $106 billion in assets.

"The cracks have been forming for five years – we’re in this slow-grinding higher phase in yields,” he said.

The stampede from bonds propelled longer-dated U.S. yields to their highest levels since January with the 30-year yield posting its biggest weekly increase since January 2009, Reuters data showed.

In the stock market, the blue chip Dow Jones industrial average finished out its best week in five years on Friday as it marked a record high close.

The 10-year German Bund yield rose to its highest level in eight months, while the 10-year British gilt yield climbed to its highest level prior to Britain’s decision to leave the European Union on June 23, known as Brexit.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Broad Market Index fell 1.18 percent this week, the steepest percentage drop since June 2015, which is equivalent to more than $1 trillion. Its U.S. Treasury index suffered a 1.91 percent decline on a total return basis, the biggest weekly drop since June 2009.

Many investors, who have loaded up on bonds on the belief of protracted easy monetary polices worldwide due to sluggish global economy, are not ready to throw in the towel.

They are counting on insurers and pension plans, together with European and Japanese investors who are struggling with negative yields at home, to preserve the bull run for bonds.

“Are we going to see a dramatic backup in yields? It’s too soon to make a conclusion about that,” said Mihir Worah, chief investment officer in asset allocation and real assets at PIMCO in Newport Beach, California, which manages $1.55 trillion in assets.

Goldman Sachs and BAML forecast the 10-year U.S. yield could climb to 2.50 percent, compared with 2.11 percent at Thursday’s close. The U.S. bond market was closed on Friday for Veterans Day.

BREXIT TWO?

Fund managers at top bond firms and analysts on Wall Street are weighing whether the impact of Trump’s win on financial markets will be similar to Brexit. European stocks sold off violently after the Brexit vote, but by mid-August had recovered all the losses. Even so, there is a great deal of uneasiness as investors wait for details on how Britain will exit the EU - not unlike the waiting game on what Trump will actually do as president.

“We need more of a cushion given the uncertainties. That’s exactly what is being played out in the global debt market,” said Mark Lindbloom, portfolio manager at Western Asset Management in Pasadena, California, which oversees $445 billion.

Trump, who beat Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, campaigned on tax cuts, trade restrictions and fiscal spending on infrastructure. It remains unclear how these promises translate into policy and the degree to which they would affect the economy.

Since Election Day, the U.S. bond market’s gauge on investors’ 10-year inflation outlook jumped to its highest level since July 2015.

Bond and stock markets suggest whatever Trump may do with the help of a Republican-controlled Congress would give a lift to the U.S. economy, which is growing at about 2 percent this year.

“It is a bit early to be calling the Big Rotation,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities in New York, referring to the idea that the three-decade-old rally in bonds is ending.

“We’ve been declaring that rotation for years. … I’m afraid it’s hard to think about that happening in the current demographics we have. Baby boomers have more investable assets than millennials do.”

Betting the U.S. economy may fare better on possible tax cuts and more federal spending, investors scooped up financial and biotech stocks, driving the S&P 500 to its best week since 2014 on Friday.

For a rotation into equities from bonds to materialize, it would require “a pick-up in the global economy, and for central banks globally at the very least to halt accommodation -and in our case remove some,” Hogan said.

TIPS APPEAL

While investors dumped most types of bonds after Trump’s victory, they piled into Treasury inflation-protected securities as a hedge against a pick-up in inflation.

“You are seeing interest in TIPS right now from a widening investors base,” said Brian Smith, portfolio manager at TCW in Los Angeles, which has $197 billion in assets.

Investors poured $1 billion into TIPS in the week ended Nov. 9, the second-biggest inflows since records began in October 2002, data from Thomson Reuters’ Lipper service showed on Thursday.

Trump’s win dovetailed with a rise in U.S. yields, reversing the safe-haven trade that stemmed from fears over the fallout of Britain’s vote to leave the EU.

Yields have also risen as some Federal Reserve officials reasserted calls for a rate increase by year-end, a move that is increasingly seen as likely by the market.

Inflation concerns have also been stoked by a recovery in U.S. oil prices, which tumbled to a 12-year low in February due to concerns over a supply glut. That is seen as another factor behind the rise in bond yields.

“The trend was already in play and it has accelerated,” Pimco’s Worah said, adding there is more room for yields to rise but not much further from current levels.