rog definitely has an advantage here. he can footsie you all day and there’s not much you can do about it. not a huge one, but if you can’t get out of footsie range you’re in for a hard match.
you can’t use normal safe jump set ups when he has meter since ex dash anything will beat it. I just saw in that jap tutorial vid that you can set up a jump in that causes wake up ex dashes to go the wrong way for you punish them. But if they dont’ do it, it looks like it’d cross up and your jump in does nothing.
c.lk s.mk target is not bad in this match up vs their wake up. it beats regular headbutt, dash punches, and you can block ex headbutt, and trades with ex dashes (relatively fair trade). You can prob add a u2 os in there to cover backdashes.
don’t forget you can punish dash blow (the non-overhead armor break) can be punished with s.rh xx ex mgb.
frame traps are great vs “average” rogs, who insist on mashing lp. Not sure if you can do this in AE, but i do c.lp, s.rh (counterhit), lk duck, c.lp s.rh xx ex mgb blah blah blah.
when you land ex mgb in the corner, lk duck straight, lp mgb does more damage than sweep x 2. though sweep x2 is super easy to do on rog, so if you dont’ feel confident about the duck straight, no harm in doing sweep x 2.
as with most charge char match ups, they will be holding db alot during your combo. find a few places where you can add in the f.rh to reset the combo. Just becareful about jab mashers, or get them to stop mashing jabs with frame traps first.
when rog has no meter, safe jump rh, mp mgb os will cover all options he has. the j.rh stuffs headbutts. cr.lk does a pretty good job too.
if you have reactions, u2 taps and ex rushes (when you see rog flash). if you see rog flash, if you’re paying attention you should be able to throw them every time.
don’t whiff f.fp on rog, you’ll get smacked all day.