You got to 4600 BP in Super so you couldn’t have been that bad. Just keep practicing links and cancels and don’t run into people
I don’t want to criticize your play (lord knows I’m worse than you) but I notice a lot of the same mistakes I’m doing in your AE video. Here’s what I’ve noticed (partially as notes to myself, but you may find them useful - again, a disclaimer that I may not actually know what I’m talking about). At the same time, I’d take everything here with a grain of salt and wait until someone who actually knows what he’s doing come in and give you advice.
0:25 - You start the round with a jump back. Why? I’m genuinely interested in reading the answer.
0:28~0:32 - You slide three times in the span of 4 seconds. Not the brightest of ideas but then again I mash cr.RK like no tomorrow myself so I know how you feel.
0:37 - I’ve had success in tossing out wake-up EX BSK, but don’t rely on it too much because it costs meter that you could use elsewhere. Also, after you scored the knockdown, you didn’t do anything. I can’t help you here, but the Guy forum is full of resources that will offer you options on how to properly have that knockdown lead to profit.
0:41 - You had him in the corner, which is a good thing! However, the TC LP Hozanto may not be the best combo to use in this situation, as you’ve no doubt learned from Ryu’s sweep.
0:46 - Here’s where I wonder something. Why did you use the FP jump? MP would have brought you near Ryu enough to throw him, whereas FP whiffed entirely. Gauging distance is an important part of gameplay. Especially with Guy because some of his important moves do move him around the screen a lot (Jump/Run, cr.RK, for example)
0:54 - Another knockdown that didn’t lead to anything. It’s a problem I have myself and I need to familiarize myself with possible post-knockdown opportunities.
0:58 - Take a look at that slide - it’s a good distance to throw it out. Don’t do it too often though. What I’m wondering about is the RK BSK after. Were you not facing a scrub, you would have died right there, rather than on your empty run a bit later in the round.
The second round, it’s mostly the same problems, so here’s what I’ve noted. It may have been some sort of personal rust showing because the pre-AE video you posted had you play a lot better. Something I have noticed though is a lot of crouch blocking, something I’m guilty of as well. Getting hit with a lot of overheads does suck, but it teaches you that some things have to be blocked standing. For your special moves, you seem to be relying solely on the FP/RK versions. I don’t think I’ve seen anything but a FP jump with, in the non-AE video, a EX jump. No use of the LP/MP versions. I know you used Run Slide at one point, but I’ve also seen a lot more Run Overheads (and some empty runs, to boot - Run Stop is good. Empty runs are very bad) than Slides. I don’t think I’ve seen an entire Stop.
Still, if you’re having fun with Guy, I suggest keeping at it. I’m no better than you are and I’m having entirely too much fun playing with him, even if it does get frustrating sometimes.
The helpful posters in this thread have been making very good points about your gameplay and have been giving you great pieces of advice. However, at the moment, I suggest not focusing too heavily on the very “specific” things, such as knowing that your opponent is likely to mash out an invincible reversal attack or worrying about performing a combo. You need to find a place to start your improvement. Try not to think about anything involving the opponent. Right now, I believe you should be thinking about what you are doing. Can you explain to us why you’re deciding to perform certain actions at various points in the match? Does your explanation make sense to you? Do you think your explanation will make sense to us? Analyzing events while you play is one of the most important (if not, the most important) steps towards becoming a better player. Bottom Tier Hatman alludes to this idea by asking you all of those questions in his post.
When you performed all of those actions during the matches, what happened? Did you hit the opponent? If so, did you follow that successful hit with a combo? (I’m only following up that question and mentioning combo-ing because it’s logical. I still don’t think you should be too concerned with combo-ing currently.) On the other hand, were you the one who received damage? If so, why did you get hit? If you had taken a different action, could you have changed the result? These questions are examples of what you should be asking yourself while playing. And, if you can’t figure out the answers to these questions during the match, you have so many resources at your fingertips to help you find these answers. Thinking about these questions and solving these problems leads you to learning the properties of your character’s options and tools. With time, you’ll phase out bad habits, such as throwing out cr.HK (which many Guy players have, including myself) and be more successful while playing.
You can figure out the purpose of each of Guy’s attacks along with footsies (poking, ground game, etc.) and other specific tactics later. In the meantime, you need to be focusing on what you’re doing, and I cannot stress that enough. Everyone needs to start somewhere. If you’re not thinking about your actions and their results, I don’t see the point of learning all of the other things that will help you become a better player. Do you?
I honestly know nothing more than Guy’s s.MP s.HP L hozanto and his target combo. I also have no idea how to punish properly after a knockdown. The things I’ve looked up and learned are different variations of the first combo such as adding a crouching jab in first. I also learned that EX run stop is a good wake-up move and it can absorb 3 hits from a cross-up, which I could then follow up with U2.
No idea how to practice or remember more combos and use them only in specific situations.
One of the stickies (the strategy, hitbox and combo thread to be precise) has a list of combos which I’ve been personally using in order to try and understand Guy’s combos more.
As far as the different situations are concerned, there’s always training mode. You can program the dummy to do pretty much anything.
Im relatively new as well been playing since september of 2010. Im taking it as a layering process. I learned spacing first and normals then moved to combos at the same time I was learning counters to certain characters. I too was a tc lp hozanto person at one time. Definately learn to start your combos from at least cr lp. I never used cr lk enough in super but Im trying to use it more in AE Im still bad with that link. Watch and listen to people in this forum they have helped me greatly. Through srk threads or online play! Do you play on PSN or XBL?
I play on PSN my username is EdiblePwncakes.
I’m not too found of practice sessions since I don’t get how that’s supposed to help me get better.
The most important part is to stick with it. Don’t get discouraged if you lose a lot.
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First thing you need to do is learn how to punish blocked moves. Then worry about everything else. No point playing the game if you don’t know how to do damage.
The training room is at first the most mundane and boring place to be, untill you start using it to discover things 
My best advice would be to go to the training room and practice landing a combo after a missed shoryuken from Ryu/Ken, record the Ryu doing a walk up shoryuken then play it back.
Block it: Punish. (
The idea is to eventually find a high damage combo that you can practice and get down 100% so everytime someone misses a Srk in a real match you can punish the mistake HARD everytime. it will become second nature to you. Turn on damage in the options to see how each thing your trying differs and turn off super meter for the timebeing.
Ive only started doing these kind of trials lately and Im raging I didnt do them before now, honestly they make such a huge difference to how you punish and react to stuff. Things like after a focus crumple, after blocking certain ultras, blocked blanka balls, after throws (throw safe jump setups are essential to Guy imo)… you cant really practice these in matches because in matches you get maybe one chance and if it fails it leaves you back at square one.
But yeah… long story short, the training room can be 4x more helpfull than playing constant matches 
Funny. My friend said to me today “Fighting games take no skill, at least Street Fighter, you just mash buttons and requires no talent. FIFA takes more skill and people actually play football in real life.” I told him button mashing only wins you against low skilled players online.Then I showed him Daigo vs Poongko at EVO and he said “I change my mind, but it’s good that Daigo guy got fucked up”. He usually tries to argue MK > SF when he’s bad at both lol.
I’d say from just watching your youtube video, you need to work on your defense. That alone would make you win more, forget the offense(for right now)
That Ryu wake up Shoryukened you almost every single time he was knocked down, you can’t just do light kicks and punches on his wake-up(Until you condition him to block on wake-up or expands his own game and realizes how unsafe that is)
When you throw him in the corner, you should be immediately preparing to jumping mk cross up or some kind of jump in, even an elbow drop, but you waited till he got up then you did the run into fierce kick. That’s not smart offense. Just work on your fundamentals. What to do after a knockdown, when to block, and what to do when you get in with guy.
The first thing I did when playing this game was hit Training Mode and complete the trials for whatever character I was interested in. I think those alone will improve your execution more than diving straight into real matches. It’s no secret that having good, strong combos at your disposal will help you win! When you’re comfortable with that, look up vids of what other useful combos there are and to see what Guy players typically like to do.
Otherwise, specifically for Guy, I like to use Guy’s command elbow (jump, down+MP) to test out my opponent to see what sort of reaction my opponent makes to attempted jump ins. From there I can gauge what style my opponent is trying to adopt. When you do get the knock down, force your opponent into guessing what you’re going to do when he wakes up. Guy has very few moves that leave him too far away from the opponent after a knockdown, so getting up in their face with his Run special should be easy. This is simplifying it a bit too much perhaps, but you should try the following when an opponent gets up: a low attack (cr.LK or cr.MK), an overhead (forward+MP or Run+HK), a cross up (jump in MK), a fake cross up (jump in as if you’re going to do MK, but do down+MP as late as possible to hit them infront), a throw, block (if you’re fighting someone that uses a lot of uppercuts on wakeup) or a backdash (can cause some uppercuts for characters to completely whiff, not giving them a chance to FADC). The last two work great if you choose to do them after using Run.Stop to get right up into their face.
Finally, please don’t be too discouraged! Especially that you’re playing as Guy whom is quite difficult to learn how to play effectively. If you’re still feeling that you want to learn a more basic, straight forward character, pick up Ryu. You can always feed what you learn from playing Ryu over to Guy if you decide you still want to learn him. God knows I was terrible when I first picked up this game and I went straight to Ryu like most new players did. That was in Vanilla. When Super came out, I had quite a fun time with Guy and the more I learnt him, the more fun he became to play and I decided he would be my main from then on 
Good luck!
Try one of these options in ranked matches:
Round with no focus.
Round not jumping a single time.
Round with not a single slide.
Round with only normals.
Round with only EX specials.
Round with run - stop pressure as soon as you get close to the opponent.
Round using your meter only for FADCs.
Lose First Round, and then do your best.
Go ONLY for throws.
Only defend yourself and aim for a draw.
Use only fierce buttons.
Etc.
It’s more useful that it sounds. Trust me.
Oh, and hit the lab 75% of the time when starting.