Rog doesn’t beat cody, i’d say it’s 6-4 in Cody’s favor. In super, i’d say Rog had that match won, Cody’s walk speed was slower and he didn’t have anything faster than 4f.
In AE, he got a bit faster walk sped, and he got a 3f short. That was enough to change the matchup in his favor. So in general what this means is that Cody can close the distance faster and a bit safer (so balrog can’t really just keep him out with pokes) and he has an awesome crouch tech AND punish for lp.ds I think those two things make the matchup really hard for rog up close.
So it depends on what kind of cody you play. I know of two styles that are pretty much at opposite ends of the spectrum.
You have Cody #1:
I describe this Cody as one who hold’s zonk knuckle hostage. Always charging, always ready, he’ll pick U1, save all of his meter and be content with throwing rocks to bait a dash punch so he can ex.zonk knuckle. IMO, this is an OK strategy, VERY low level, but OK. With this Cody’s you get to play with his wakeup. I feel that cody’s most useless button is jab, all of his other buttons are much more useful, so if a Cody player is using zonk knuckle A LOT, it probably means that he’s charging with jab and thus can’t tech throws…throw him to death. With Zonk knuckle, only ex is invincible to throws, and non-ex only has upper body invincibility. So you get to meaty throw/meaty jab O/S sweep all day. Cody has a single answer to this and that’s ex.cu. If you have a smart Cody, you can’t bait out this option and punish with cr.mp xx whatever OR if he attempts to FADC dash forward, go for the focus-tech. He has armor breaking options, but only zonk knuckle is invincible, and if you block it he gets punish with cr.mp into anything. In general blocked zonk knuckle and block criminal upper equals free cr.mp xx anything, just be aware that you can’t safely cancel into lp.ds on block since he can punish it. (Rule of thumb is to always see if the Cody can consistently punish dash straight on block, as it makes the match that much easier)
Cody #2:
This is a high level Cody. This Cody is looking for you to make mistakes and wants to bait out any type of dash punch. He will usually save his meter for three bar combos into ex.cu for added stun, he’ll use ex.rocks more. Zonk knuckle is used a whole lot less. This cody will also bombard you with frame-traps given the opportunity. So all of Cody’s buttons have pushback, so eventually when you’re blocking a frame-trap, there will be a point where he needs to re-establish spacing so his buttons connect. Most Cody’s will use f+mp, the gut punch that moves him forward, to do this. This move is safe on block, but has a lot of recovery and he can’t cancel it into anything, so if you can re-act to it, focus or ex.dash punch through it for free. And once you can do this you can get in a range where you buttons make sense and/or he has to work to get back into to start frame trapping you again.
AFAIK, that’s the spectrum from mid-level scrubby to high-level tactical. OH and don’t forget, meaty ex.rocks is SAFE. You’ll feel like Super/U1 can catch him, but it’s a lie. Also he can punish your FADC backdash with st.mp after his jump-ins, an easy way to lose a lot of life. Watch out for his b+mp, one of the best AA’s in the game. Look out for cross-up j.hk, it’s pretty sick mid-screen and in the corner. His j.lp can do some weird stuff with ex.dashes on wakeup, and the knife has stupid range, it makes his jab almost as gdlk as his cr.lk.