Sorry for the wall of text in advance. I can be such a windbag at times.
@ Darkyellow. You can definitely stand fierce her sweep pretty easily from max range (well easily might be an exaggeration). I particularly look to RH her RH, sweep, MP, and depending on how the player behaves, her standing jab.
In general:
The more that I play this match up, the more that I think it is 5/5. On paper, I’d say that it obviously seems like a match in Chun’s favor, but if you play on your specific opponent’s behavior, it only takes one slip for Chun to be put in a very bad position. If she has no meter, all she can do is backdash or block. And even with meter she is not very scary to pressure with meaty attacks. She is possibly the easiest character in the game to get a buffered RH xx FP/EX MGB counter poke against. And landing just one might be all you need to keep a leash on the match.
I generally approach this match up with a few things at the forefront.
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Patiently focus her kikouken’s if the Chun player intends to rely on them and turtle. There is no reason to try and duck or jump over them unless they are very poorly spaced or timed.
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If the Chun player gets bored of waiting, they will usually throw out a kikouken and follow it to put pressure on you with a followup attack. when you see them walking forward, you can try to sneak in a lk duck upper or duck straight. I consider this an outgame strategy, since the player can potentially block. But you would be surprised at how often they won’t until you tag them a few times like this. For me, it is more of a method to get your opponent to second guess their methods to pressure you. The most important part of this is to wait to duck upper until the last moment that you appear too far for her to try and tag you with a poke. If they get used to it and try blocking, occasionally you can mix in an empty duck and throw.
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Often it leads to Chun players abandoning, or reducing their kikouken usage in favor of trying to pressure you with her superior pokes alone. This is when you look to counterpoke in as many ways as you can. Not just with St. RH, but with every corresponding normal that you have at your possession depending upon spacing. (cr. lk against her cr.lk, stand FP in general, etc). Dudley has many normals that can tag her at her normal’s max ranges.
-If they don’t abandon turtling with kikoukens, I just walk her into the corner, and let her get paranoid. It is easy to keep her from jumping out and it becomes easy to try and pressure through the kikoukens with focus attacks and oddly timed jump ins as well as continuing to try and counter poke. But for the most part, just standing outside of her footsie range while she is in the corner gives her almost no good options.
The biggest frustrations that I have against her involve her cr. short. It can be hard to keep a Chun player blocking long enough, during block strings, to keep pressure up with f. MK. She can just mash on cr. short into legs/ex legs and keep you out as soon as you lose frame advantage. This is why i tend to avoid pressuring her with block strings for the most part and favor going for a knockdown with counterpokes. Outside of backdashing/blocking, she is free on wakeup without meter.
If you have U1 stocked, look to do it on reaction constantly to both kikoukens and her longer animation normals when at midscreen or closer. It is also the best punish for a blocked EX bird kick.
on a side note, her flip kick move is incredibly easy to (ex) cross counter on reaction for big damage.
Her wakeup pressure on you is much worse than yours is against her. So try and exploit that while not just rushing into her superior pokes. She is the type of character that is meant to not give you an inch, so I try and do the same for her.
