Dankah
1000
I think honestly there isn’t much of a guarantee on this one. Remember that a karakusa cannot be teched but a karakusa CAN tech an opponents throw, very strange but it makes sense if you think about it for a while haha. As far as an opponent teching on their wakeup against Makoto they almost never do it. The idea being that they will either eat anything you throwout leading into another karakusa setup or maybe st. mp~st.lk xx lp. hayate the risk isnt really worth it.
Kara-karakusa is valuable on wakeup once you establish that you CAN do stuff to them off a st. lk kara and make them block high if you cancel into an ex oroshi. By letting them see the st. lk on their wakeup they are forced to choose in a split second often going for a block or desperate dp. They almost never tech seeing as the 2 options just explained off st. lk WILL BEAT any tech they do 90% of the time. So long story short they usually block high or do something with invul ie: shoto dp. Make them want to mash dp and then just wiff st. lk on their wakeup to draw it out, then punish to the fullest 
I try to think of Makoto as a character that trains your opponent to operate on your terms over a 3 game set. Make them do stuff that is in your favor. I know I diverted a little from the question but I hope this helps in the overall idea of the kara-karakusa on your opponents wakeup, as I’m only now developing it myself. Good luck to you!
Hitomi
1001
I’m trying to adapt from SSF4 AE’s Makoto to this new one. A few questions!
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What’s her best hit-confirm? I’ve been using s.MP, c.LK xx LP Hayate, but the Hayate whiffs more often than not.
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Is there a link to her hit-box data?
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Just double checking this: is SA2 only available off of s.HP if you’re in the Os in this example, back to the corner?
X000XXXXX
- Is there a shortcut to Hayate canceling? In SSF4, you can cancel with LP+LK (like a throw) and it works every time. In 3S, it seems like you have to go punch first, then a bit later cancel with a kick.
Hitomi
1003
I will try out s.MP, s.LK xx LP Hayate, thanks. Makes sense that it would hit due to the Kara-effect it has.
Mike_Z
1004
If you want to see hitboxes, you can do so with MAME and the proper scripts, but I won’t post links here.
However, hitboxes are way less important in 3s than you think, it’s all about feelin’ what’s what. :^)
Hitomi
1005
Aside from parrying, is c.MK her best counter-poke for things like Ken’s c.MK and c.HK? Is c.MP buffered Hayate a useful tool in 3S?
In 3SOE, a LOT of people are playing it like AE and doing a lot of low pokes once I’m close, and while I’m getting the hang of parrying these things, I’d like to know more consistent options. Should I UOH these types?
Mike_Z
1006
Yeah, I noticed people playing it like SF4. (^.^)’ If they’re just trying to low poke you lots, you can pretty much just do [Karakusa, Fierce xx minimal-held Strong Hayate] till done, heh. If done right there’s not enough space for a low Jab from most characters.
cr.Fwd is an excellent counterpoke to nearly everything, yes, but if you’re trying to stuff things like Ken cr.Fwd on reaction then cr.Short is a better option a lot of the time. His cr.Fwd is just slightly better than yours unless you were both in range to start with.
Hitomi
1007
Question: once I’ve stunned an opponent, is Fukiage almost always the best follow-up if I don’t have SA2 (assuming I’m using SA2, of course)? I see J Fukiage stunned opponents, and I have to wonder if he’s just being flashy to kill a very low health character.
If it is optimal, how character specific is it?
Mike_Z
1008
Very specific. You can only hit Q from behind, for example, and you can only hit shotos at very specific points in the stun animation, plus you can’t hit most of the cast at all. It’s viable on Hugo, Alex, Dudley, Elena annnnnd…that’s really about it. The rest are iffy, and most (Twelve, Ibuki, Remy, Oro, Urien, Chun, etc) are impossible.
It’s a good idea to do on those four because you get a lot of stun re-build, a lot of damage, and a good juggle (sj RH axe kick, sj late Jab plus reset, or if you do Jab Fukiage you can cr.RH). However, j.Fierce/RH, s.Fierce xx Hayate, or Fwd axe kick, s.Strong xx Hayate are nearly equivalent and much easier.
Hitomi
1009
Why does EX Hayate in s.HP xx EX Hayate get blocked at times? I don’t feel as I’m canceling it late … I’ve even tried negative edging using HP and MP as my base, and occasionally it gets blocked. Is it merely a strict cancel?
What is the deal with s.HP, anyway? It only has 1 active frame, but it seems like you can cancel it a bit during its recovery frames; that, or the frame data is wrong.
Mike_Z
1010
You can cancel things after the hitstop, yes. If they’re blocking the EX Hayate you’re cancelling too late. :^)
Hitomi
1011
Sorry, I figured out my problem. I didn’t realize this until it happened about five times, but in training mode, if your opponent “dies,” the combo is ended and he blocks. That’s what was getting me. Not sure why they made it like that.
Hitomi
1012
Sorry for being a pest 
In s.HP xx SA2, should MK SA2 always be used if in range? Or are there certain ranges where HK SA2 will hit earlier than MK, due to an opponent being tall enough or close enough that HK’s arc hits them sooner than MK’s near-end point in its arc?
ryan
1013
this is kinda tricky, but you are smart for noticing this. if in range for mk, you should use rh against taller and bigger characters due to rh hitting earlier. vs shotos too, use rh if possible. vs urien in particular rh sa2 hits almost everywhere lol.
vs some shorter characters (yun, yang, elena, chun, mak?) its best to do mk rather than rh.
vs yun and yang if your back is to the corner, you must do lk sa2. vs other characters ill use mk when my backs to the corner as youll have less chance of randomly whiffing.
learning all the correct distances and what button to use is gonna take some trial and error. good luck.
Hitomi
1014
I’d just like to thank you guys for the help. Expect more questions, if you don’t mind.
So post EX Hayate in the corner, is this the priority?
s.HP on Alex and Hugo
LP Hayate on big characters (Urien, Q, Gill?) and Alex and Hugo when s.HP won’t miss
s.MK on EVERYONE else
Is this correct?
JAK
1015
Off the top of my head…
twds short: the twins
st fwd/cr strong: everyone but the twins
jab hayate-> *akuma, chun, elena, *oro, remy, Q, makoto, ibuki (=these characters juggle somewhat funny… is somewhat unreliable)
st fwd kara’ed jab hayate: ken, ryu, 12, sean
cr rh kara’ed jab hayate: dudley
strong hayate: Urien, hugo, alex
st fp: hugo, alex
cr rh: alex
And my I suggest
Provides most basic info has an error or two but its a great starting point and covers most basics of 3s Makoto
Nice, JAK. I deleted my post cause yours is much more accurate/helpful.
Dankah
1017
Yeah these are all accurate. Most of those kara hayate finishers aren’t worth the trouble imo. Cr. mp is amazing if hayate canceled for the distance is awesome and can be used to setup fun kara karakusa’s, not to mention keeping the pressure on. Make sure to check out Makotos setup to kara karakusa after a ex hayate in the corner: st.fp hayate (reset) ~ kara karakusa. Or just dashup grab if your lazy like me http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MAvFiAJhAII
JAK
1018
—random shit—
yang sa2- (crouch block only iirc) dash back cr rh~jab fuki dash forward cr rh~jab fuki
oro ex upper - n.jump mk tsurugi hayatex2 on block (ex hayate works for second one)
ryu’s ex dp- free n.jump rh combo on block (also works on fp shoryu although ex is easily identified)
sean ex dp- free n.jump fp/rh combo on block
ibuki ex upkicks- free ex fuki on hit if not super cancelled, free n.jump combo on parry
akuma and kens fp shoryu’s (point blank cr block only) - st fuki dash forward cr rh kara jab fuki (meter less 100% stun on akuma although not really practical)
is the “cr rh~jab fukiage” does that mean kara’d with crouch rh?
if so, I assume its done the same way as ken’s kara shoryu? unlike st rh kara where it goes to neutral, you just keep it in the down forward position?